The 2024 ߣÏÈÉúAV season hits another inflection point with four weeks to go: It's make-or-break time.
For most teams, the ride to Week 18 is a jerking roller coaster. There are steep inclines, pitched falls and twists. Rarely is a team on a consistent climb into the postseason.
The final four weeks represent the last chance to make a run at playoff contention, push for seeding, avoid elimination or solidify postseason position. At this point, teams are who they are. The early-season test period is well in the past. New injuries might toss a wrench into things, but in large part, we know what we're watching.
Week 15 begins the sprint to January. Those playing well now will enter with a leg up. Those wobbling to the end will either find themselves on the outs or traveling a tougher path through the postseason.
Sunday's smorgasbord of big games offers a cornucopia of matchups with playoff implications. Eight teams enter the week with their playoff probability leverage above 20 percentage points (leverage is the difference between a team's chances to earn a postseason bid with a win versus what it would fall to with a loss), per Next Gen Stats.
At this point in the season, every game is big for teams on the brink -- Miami, for example, has been clinging to their hopes alive for weeks. Let's take a gander at five teams that most need a win in this make-or-break weekend.
NOTE: All playoff probabilities presented were current as of 12:15 p.m. ET on Dec. 11 unless otherwise indicated below.
WHEN: Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET | ESPN, ESPN Deportes, NFL+
Raheem Morris' club needs a win -- any win -- to stop its slide into oblivion. Coming out of Week 9, Atlanta held a two-game lead in the NFC South. After four straight losses, including Sunday's dismal 21-point misadventure in Minnesota, the Falcons find themselves a game behind Tampa Bay, sitting at No. 9 in the NFC pecking order.
Starting Monday night against the two-win Raiders, the schedule sets up well for Morris' crew, with just one contest remaining against a club that currently has more than three victories (at the Commanders in Week 17). But there is no more room for stubbed toes or wayward passes. Next Gen Stats' playoff probability model says the Falcons' postseason odds would drop to 21 percent with a loss to Las Vegas. The figure would be boosted to 51 percent with a victory. That's 30 percentage points of leverage.
At the time of posting, the Falcons were a (-4, per DraftKings) over a Raiders team that continues to have massive questions at quarterback. That they're not a bigger favorite against a two-win opponent underscores Atlanta's own issues under center. It is vital not just for ATL to come out on top but also for Kirk Cousins to get back on track. Over the team's four-game losing streak, the highly-paid QB has thrown zero TD passes and eight INTs. If Cousins can't pick apart a Vegas D that ranks 30th in pass defense efficiency, according to NGS, it's worth asking how much more he can offer this season -- and the Falcons are likely toast.
WHEN: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
The Bills have already clinched the AFC East, but if they want any shot at overtaking the Chiefs for the No. 1 seed, they can't drop back to back games. Heck, with a loss Sunday in Detroit, they could spiral down to the No. 3 seed, if the Steelers keep surging.
After Buffalo succumbed to the Rams in a Week 14 shootout in L.A., the team's probability of claiming the top spot in the conference dropped 23 percentage points from where it stood heading into Week 14 (37% to 14%). If the Bills fall to the Lions, they'd need to win out the rest of the way, with the Chiefs losing three of their final four games. Fat chance.
The defeat to the Rams highlighted Buffalo's up-and-down defense. At times this season, the unit has played better than the talent on the field, given the injuries it has faced. At others, like on Sunday, when the Bills registered just nine QB pressures and zero sacks, the D has been burned. Josh Allen has overcome a lot this season, but against a Detroit team with the firepower to match Buffalo on offense, Sean McDermott's defense must be at its best to topple another conference leader.
With a win Sunday in Detroit, the Bills could race to the finish line, with the remaining games on the schedule being against AFC East opponents currently sitting at 3-10 (two games vs. New England, one vs. the Jets). It could put a modicum of pressure on a K.C. squad that continues to eke out wins. A loss would make the AFC postseason running through Orchard Park a near impossibility.
(On the flip side for Detroit, the Week 14 win over Green Bay was massive because it affords the Lions a mulligan in the race for the No. 1 seed in the NFC.)
WHEN: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET | FOX
Dan Quinn's club is in playoff position because it has topped teams it's "supposed" to beat. The Commanders are 8-1 versus opponents currently sporting a losing record (the only loss being to the Cowboys) and 0-4 versus clubs above the .500 mark. Sunday represents another chance to take care of business against a 5-8 Saints squad. With bouts against Philly, Atlanta and a rematch with Dallas to close the season, getting to the nine-win mark in Week 15 would be key to securing their playoff bid.
Last we saw Jayden Daniels and Co. on the field, they walloped a dismal Tennessee Titans club at home. It was the type of blowout that playoff teams add to their ledger on the march to January. The win stopped a three-game skid during which the Commanders lost their grip on the NFC East. A Washington defeat and a Philly win on Sunday clinches the division for the Eagles.
Focus for Quinn's club is now on sewing up that final playoff spot. Next Gen Stats gives Washington an 87 percent chance of making the postseason with a win. Yet, that number drops to 58 percent with a loss -- 29 percentage points of leverage. A couple of stumbles down the stretch would open the door for teams from the NFC West and a couple in the NFC South to feel they have a path to the postseason through the wild card.
The new régime in D.C. engineered a quick turnaround in Year 1. Sunday is another box-tick game. Can the young Commanders win a high-leverage contest against a club they should best, one that has little to play for and is starting a backup QB? An upset loss could set up Washington for a late-season slide right out of the playoffs.
WHEN: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
This is essentially a playoff game for the Colts, who sit two games behind the Broncos for a playoff spot. Next Gen Stats gives Indy a 56 percent chance to make the postseason with a victory. A loss plunges those odds to 7 percent. That's 49 percentage points in leverage, the most for any team in Week 15. Frankly, that 7 percent chance of reaching the postseason with a Week 15 loss feels kind. Sure, the Colts finish with games against the three-win Titans, two-win Giants and three-win Jags, so getting to 9-8 is possible. However, at that point, they'd need heaps of help to turn that record into a playoff bid.
Shane Steichen's club needs a W in Denver to keep hope alive.
Through 13 games, the Colts haven't beaten many good teams. Indy is 1-6 versus teams with a winning record -- the lone victory coming at home against the Justin Fields-led Steelers. Squeaking out a pre-bye W over the lowly Patriots didn't exactly inspire optimism for an upset bid in Denver.
However, the offense has played better since Anthony Richardson's return to the lineup in Week 11. His dual-threat ability will be key against a good Broncos defense that is coming off its worst game of the season. Indy needs the athletic quarterback to show the kind of accuracy he did against the Jets in his first game back (66.7% completion rate) and avoid turnovers to notch a road win. While the national focus has been on Richardson and the offense, Gus Bradley's defense might be one of the more disappointing units in the league, getting gashed more than their talent would suggest it should. If the Colts can't slow Bo Nix and Sean Payton's offense, things could get out of hand.
Sunday's task: win on the road against a successful opponent who boasts a good defense and potentially explosive offense. Playoff teams prevail in situations like this, and also-rans get their doors blown off.
WHEN: Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET | Prime Video, NFL+
A loss doesn't obliterate the 49ers' playoff chances, but it's as close as you get to a non-zero. According to the Next Gen Stats model at the time of posting, of 10,000 simulations, the 49ers would make the postseason 13 times following a loss to L.A. (0.13%). The model rationally rounds that down to zero. Welp. This sounds like a must-win to me.
, as poker players might say. The 49ers entered the season with a lot of chips coming off a Super Bowl run. Unfortunately for Kyle Shanahan, most have dented or cracked in half along the way.
The Niners have been decimated by injuries on both sides of the ball. Christian McCaffrey's on his second IR stint, Brandon Aiyuk went down early, the defensive line has deteriorated, Nick Bosa hasn't played in weeks, Trent Williams missed time and now Isaac Guerendo is banged up.
And yet, Sunday's shellacking of Chicago showed that they still own talent on the field. Shanny's club could make a run by stacking wins and getting help. A victory over L.A. boosts the Niners' playoff odds to 11 percent. They'd still need aid (mostly in the form of Seattle losses), but winning both of their remaining division games gives them a shot.
