Player projections are solid barometers for week-to-week fantasy expectations -- but they aren't always right. We're here to help you navigate those numbers and make the optimal decisions for your fantasy lineup by breaking down a handful of each week.
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HIGHER
PROJECTED POINTS: 14.9
Matt: Nix had a couple duds on either side of his Week 14 bye -- throwing five interceptions in Weeks 13 and 15 combined -- but those games were outliers in an impressive rookie season. And while his opponents in those two duds, the Browns and Colts, have both been tough on quarterbacks in fantasy ... the Bengals have not.
Yes, they’ve allowed just 32 fantasy points to the position over the last three weeks, but consider the QBs they faced: Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Will Levis/Mason Rudolph and Cooper Rush. Sheesh. The three games prior, they allowed 28 points per outing to Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson. Nix fits in more closely with the latter group and should smash this projection in Championship Week.
PROJECTED POINTS: 17.4
Michelle: San Francisco's offense is not jelling. Purdy has been off his game, but he's still put up 20-plus fantasy points in two of his last three games. With the 49ers onto what feels like their 15th-string running back, Purdy will be tasked with a heavy workload in an attempt to keep up with the Lions' high-flying offense.
Plus, all of the Lions' defensive injuries are starting to take their toll, with opposing QBs consistently putting up big numbers. Josh Allen dropped 41.3 fantasy points on Detroit in Week 15, while Caleb Williams scored 22-plus points twice, in Weeks 13 and 16.
PROJECTED POINTS: 15.0
Michelle: There has been only one game in which McLaurin hasn't hit at least 15 fantasy points since Week 6. The veteran wideout has been a touchdown-scoring machine, with six TDs over the last four games and 12 on the season. He needs to haul in just one more to break the Commanders' single-season receiving touchdown record. We should expect him to set that mark Sunday night against a Falcons defense that has allowed a league-high 20 receiving touchdowns to the wide receiver position in 2024. Only the Vikings have allowed more fantasy points per game to WRs than the Falcons this year. I expect McLaurin will win many folks their fantasy championships this weekend.
PROJECTED POINTS: 10.9
Matt: On an offensive depth chart filled with intriguing pass catchers, Reed does have a proclivity to disappear more than we’d like from a true WR1 -- like in Week 14, when he posted a fantasy doughnut, receiving just one target. But he also has rare upside -- like in Week 4, when he dropped 27.1 fantasy points against Minnesota.
This Sunday brings a huge divisional rematch with the Vikings, who have been gashed by wideouts all season. They’re allowing 41.2 fantasy points per game to the position, most in the league by a decent margin, while being much stingier against running backs and tight ends. I honestly like a small handful of Green Bay receivers in this one, but Reed tops the pack and should top this projection.
LOWER
PROJECTED POINTS: 11.9
Michelle: It was a fun stretch for Dowdle when he faced three struggling rush defenses from Weeks 13 through 15 (Giants, Bengals and Panthers), but things came crashing down in Week 16 against the Buccaneers’ top-five run defense. Dowdle gets another tough draw this Sunday in the Eagles, who have allowed the second-fewest fantasy PPG to running backs in 2024. Despite seeing 15 touches in his first matchup with Philly this season, he put up just 8.6 points.
Unfortunately, Dowdle is struggling to find the end zone and is not heavily involved as a receiver; he has only one rushing touchdown all season long and has had three or fewer targets in each of his last five games. Just three RBs have hit 12 fantasy points versus Philly when they've scored zero touchdowns and received fewer than five targets: Josh Jacobs in Week 1 (18 touches, 12.4 fantasy points), Alvin Kamara in Week 3 (29 touches, 15.7 pts) and Derrick Henry in Week 13 (22 touches, 14.1 points).
PROJECTED POINTS: 12.4
Matt: Your fantasy app likely shows a bright green matchup for White this week against Carolina, and it makes sense: The Panthers rank 31st (of 32 teams) in . But in a game that Tampa Bay is expected to dominate, that Panthers' shortcoming favors Bucky Irving more than it does White.
And unfortunately for his fantasy managers, White tends to lose his upside in games where Irving takes the reins in the backfield, falling short of this projection in three of the last four outings when his rookie teammate was healthy. It’s possible White catches six or seven passes to top this number, but if you have an option with a more concrete role -- even someone like Jerome Ford -- I’d lean in that direction in Week 17.
