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In every season of the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016), the leader in total pass expected points added (EPA) has won the MVP award: Matt Ryan (+184.0) won in 2016, Tom Brady (+132.9) won in 2017, Patrick Mahomes (+195.1) won in 2018 and Lamar Jackson (+132.9) won last season. Entering Week 15, the 2020 MVP race had seemingly narrowed down to two candidates -- and the field mirrors the leaders in total pass EPA. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (+163.7 pass EPA) and Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (+151.3 pass EPA) are comfortably ahead of everyone else -- the next-closest is Bills quarterback Josh Allen (+89.0).

Mahomes has put together another magnificent season so far, leading the Chiefs to an ߣÏÈÉúAV-best 12-1 record heading into Week 15. Mahomes is also currently leading the ߣÏÈÉúAV with a +163.7 pass EPA. The Chiefs are leaning on Mahomes early and often, as they have the highest pass percentage over expectation based on game situation at +4.2 percentage points. Mahomes has also excelled in different off-script scenarios. Against the blitz, Mahomes has a 68.9 percent completion rate, 12 TDs, 0 INTs and +0.61 EPA per dropback. The next-closest qualified QB in EPA per dropback against the blitz is the Cowboys' Dak Prescott at +0.36, while the league-wide average is -0.01. Mahomes also spends just 93.8 percent of his time on dropbacks in the tackle box, the second-lowest figure in the ߣÏÈÉúAV (behind Lamar Jackson's rate of 93.1). On passes from outside the tackle box, Mahomes has thrown 11 TDs (most in the ߣÏÈÉúAV) and 0 INTs (tied for the fewest), with a 122.5 passer rating (highest) and 8.5 yards per attempt (second-most, behind Jared Goff's 8.7). While it's obviously best to get a first down before reaching third down, Mahomes is doing his part to convert long third downs when faced with them. He's only thrown short of the line to gain 34.5 percent of the time on third-and-7-plus yards to go, the lowest rate in the ߣÏÈÉúAV. His ability and willingness to push the ball downfield, especially when it's needed, opens up many opportunities for the Chiefs' offense. With three games left in Kansas City's regular season, Mahomes is in position to potentially claim the second MVP award of his young career -- although the next player on the list will certainly have something to say about that.

Rodgers has been enjoying a phenomenal season after multiple down years (at least, relative to what we expect from Rodgers), and he's right in the thick of the MVP race with Mahomes. Rodgers is currently second in total pass EPA with +151.3, just shy of Mahomes' mark of +163.7 -- but he edges out Mahomes in EPA per dropback, +0.33 to +0.32. Notably, Rodgers' EPA per dropback from 2016 to '19 was just +0.08 -- 12th-best over that period. One of the keys to Rodgers' 2020 bounceback has been his willingness to change his tendencies in his second season operating head coach Matt LaFleur's offense. Rodgers is currently using dropbacks that last between 2.5 and 4.0 seconds 42.6 percent of the time, and he's using extended dropbacks (lasting 4.0+ seconds) just 12.3 percent of the time -- those are Rodgers' high and low marks in the NGS era for those stats, respectively. Since 2016, the league-wide pressure and sack rates on extended dropbacks sit at 53.1 percent and 31.7 percent, respectively. Compare that to the league-wide pressure and sack rates on dropbacks of 2.5-4.0 seconds: 34.6 percent and 5.3 percent. So, unsurprisingly, Rodgers is at NGS-era lows in both pressure rate (16.3%) and sack rate (2.8%), despite also carrying an NGS-era low in pressure-evaded percent (11.5%). Rodgers has made major strides in the play-action passing game, especially from under center. Rodgers is using play-action on 28.2 percent of dropbacks this season, which represents an increase in play-action rate for the fourth straight season. Rodgers has gotten more comfortable using the middle of the field on play-action. In his first season under LaFleur, in 2019, 56.6 percent of Rodgers' play-action attempts were outside the numbers -- and no other qualified QB was above 50 percent. This season, that number is all the way down to 43.0 percent. His eight TDs, 143.8 passer rating and +0.59 EPA per dropback on play-action passes between the numbers are all best in the ߣÏÈÉúAV. The Packers currently sit atop the NFC with a 10-3 record (and the head-to-head tiebreaker over the 10-3 Saints). A few more stellar games from Rodgers could secure the Packers a first-round bye in the playoffs -- as well as Rodgers' third career MVP.

Allen is in the midst of a true breakout season, leading the Bills to the brink of their first AFC East title since 1995. He's currently third in the ߣÏÈÉúAV with +89.0 pass EPA after posting marks of -70.3 (third-worst) and -33.4 (12th-worst) in 2018 and '19, respectively. It's clear that Allen has made big strides playing the QB position in each of his three seasons. He's declined his deep-pass percentage (10.0% in 2020) and air yards per attempt (8.4 in 2020) in both seasons since his rookie year. He's also improved his downfield passing accuracy and production in each season. His completion percentage over expectation on passes of 10-plus yards in the air has risen from -10.5% to -2.9% to +7.6% from 2018 to 2020, while his yards per attempt has gone from 8.2 to 9.4 to 11.1 in that span. Allen has also improved his touch when on the move. His +4.3 completion percentage over expectation when passing on the run (moving 8-plus MPH) is sixth-best in the ߣÏÈÉúAV; in 2018 and 2019, Allen ranked second-worst. Allen's improved passing on the run allows him to take full advantage of his athleticism and couples well with his rushing ability. On the year, Allen has 350 rushing yards (eighth among QBs), six rushing TDs (tied for third) and 35 rushing first downs (fourth). Allen's athleticism, paired with his vastly improved feel for the QB position and accuracy throwing the ball, have the Bills looking like a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

While Wilson sits seventh overall in pass EPA at +71.8, it's been a tale of two seasons for him, with a potential third act underway. Through Wilson's first seven games (eight weeks of the ߣÏÈÉúAV season), he was third in the league with +68.5 pass EPA, and the Seahawks were sitting pretty at 6-1. Then, Wilson and Seattle hit a snag in Week 9. From Week 9 to Week 13, Wilson put up -11.6 total pass EPA, as Seattle went 2-3 and lost its lead in the NFC West. However, the Seahawks got back to their early season offense against the Jets in Week 14, and Wilson put up +14.8, including +0.55 EPA per dropback, his highest mark in a game this season. It's looking unlikely that the Seahawks can get the top seed in the NFC, but if Wilson can finish out the season like he started and the Seahawks win their final three games, he may creep back up as a real contender for MVP -- though he would still likely need the rest of the crowd to fall off.