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The Chiefs are en route to securing the AFC's top seed and only bye for the conference behind Patrick Mahomes' magnificent play. Mahomes is close to winning his second league MVP trophy in just his third season as a starter, and he currently leads the ߣÏÈÉúAV in total pass expected points added (164.8) this season. The leader in total pass EPA has won the MVP award in each of the last four seasons (since Next Gen Stats began tracking). The Chiefs are rarely not in control of a game and if they aren't, they are always within striking distance. If you need a reminder, Kansas City wiped out a 24-0 deficit in just a single quarter against the Texans in the Divisional Round a season ago. Mahomes has the second-most TDs (36) on deep passes since 2018 while his favorite deep target, Tyreek Hill, has 17 TDs on deep targets (most in ߣÏÈÉúAV). The latter displays rare speed and acceleration evidenced by his route speed within 1 second on go routes (10.64 MPH, fastest in the ߣÏÈÉúAV, min. 50 go routes). The Chiefs' ability to win deep and score points quickly is going to make it difficult to knock off the reigning Super Bowl champions.

Josh Allen and the Bills are seemingly the team that can give the Chiefs the most issues come January. Like the Chiefs, the Bills have been in control in most of their matchups this season. The only QB to take a lower percentage of dropbacks with less than a 25% Win Probability than Josh Allen (5.8%) is Patrick Mahomes. A key reason for that is the development of Allen who has transformed into the player the Bills thought he'd become when they selected him seventh overall in the 2018 ߣÏÈÉúAV Draft. Allen's Completion Percentage Over Expected has increased drastically after overhauling his mechanics last offseason. Allen is currently fourth in CPOE (+3.9%) after ranking in the bottom three in CPOE in both 2018 (-7.7%, last) & 2019 (-3.7%, thrd-lowest).

T.J. Watt and the Steelers' defense has carried the team thus far this season. Watt leads the ߣÏÈÉúAV with 67 QB pressures while the unit ranks first with a 38.6% pressure rate. Despite the Steelers' defensive success, the bottom has completely fallen out offensively during the month of December. The Steelers have become one dimensional on offense and are using 3-plus WR sets, pass plays and traditional dropbacks (non-run action) at the highest rates in the ߣÏÈÉúAV the last four weeks. This has allowed teams to put more defensive backs on the field without worrying about the threat of the run. Opposing defenses have used nickel defense on 82.3% of plays vs. the Steelers since Week 12 (60% of plays in Weeks 1-11). Pittsburgh has also struggled against nickel personnel, averaging 5.0 yards per play against the grouping (third-fewest in ߣÏÈÉúAV).

Derrick Henry currently ranks first in Rushing Yards Over Expected (RYOE) this season with +303 RYOE, after ranking first in RYOE (+305) in 2019 and in third (+218) in 2018. Much of that production from the reigning ߣÏÈÉúAV rushing champion is due to gaining steam as the season progresses. Henry has performed better relative to expectation as the weather gets colder and the calendar begins to turn. Since 2018, Henry has gained -97 RYOE in September (lowest), +115 RYOE in October (fifth-most), +294 in November (first) and +513 RYOE in December (first). Henry's RYOE in December is 263 RYOE more than the next-closest RB, Saquon Barkley (+250 RYOE).

Baker Mayfield has ramped up his play in the last month. Part of that is due to his protection up front as he's been pressured on 12.5% since Week 12, the lowest rate in the ߣÏÈÉúAV. Mayfield has been particularly impressive when not under pressure in that span, throwing for 10 TDs (T-most) and a 122.5 passer rating (fifth-highest). The Browns passer has also grown accustomed to Kevin Stefanski's offensive scheme, using play-action on 32.1% of dropbacks this season (fifth-highest in the ߣÏÈÉúAV) and ranks first in TDs (seven) and third in passer rating (145.3) on such attempts since Week 12.

Philip Rivers and the Colts have mutually benefited from their contract agreement last offseason. The Colts have a QB to lead them into the playoffs, and Rivers has an offensive line to protect him. Rivers has been pressured on 20% of dropbacks this season, the seventh-lowest rate in the ߣÏÈÉúAV and the lowest for Rivers in the last five seasons. Additionally, when Rivers has been pressured, he's been effective with a 104.1 passer rating under pressure this season (highest in ߣÏÈÉúAV). It's a drastic difference from his play (49.1 passer rating, sixth-lowest) and Jacoby Brissett's (41.8 passer rating, last) when under pressure a season ago.

The decision to start Tua Tagovailoa has turned out to be a great one for the Dolphins, mainly because they are playing to Tagovailoa's strengths. The rookie has used play-action on 30.5% of dropbacks this season (seventh-highest in the ߣÏÈÉúAV). For comparison, Ryan Fitzpatrick used play-action on 14.2% of dropbacks this season (second-lowest in the ߣÏÈÉúAV). The rookie has been effective on play-action passes, too, throwing four touchdowns, zero INTs and a 101.3 passer rating. On the other side of the ball, the Dolphins have had an incredible season headlined by Xavien Howard. He leads the league with nine interceptions and has a 45.1 passer rating allowed as the nearest defender this season (second-lowest in the ߣÏÈÉúAV, min. 25 targets).