ߣÏÈÉúAV

The Atlanta Falcons made one of their most consequential decisions in years as an organization this week, anointing rookie Michael Penix Jr. as the starter over Kirk Cousins and moving forward on a plan they began on draft night when they took Penix at No. 8 overall.

As owner Arthur Blank has made known, nothing is more important than a succession plan.

And while the initial fallout will play out on the field starting today against the New York Giants, with Penix leading a more energized and looser offense, the decisions for how to proceed with Cousins won't be made for several months.

After conversations with sources involved in the situation, here is a look at the various factors at play and possible outcomes:

• The Falcons could release him: The Falcons have already paid Cousins $62.5 million this season and he gets a fully guaranteed salary of $27.5 million next season no matter what. If he's on the roster on the fifth day of the league year in 2025, another $10 million for 2026 is fully guaranteed. That's one reason why many involved believe a release is the most likely outcome. Would Cousins work with the Falcons on a trade? That's hard to imagine, considering he's more attractive to his future team as a possible minimum salary QB, à la Russell Wilson with the Steelers this year, and him being a free agent is always preferred. A release is easily the best option for Cousins.
• The Falcons could keep him as a backup: Cousins has been a model teammate in the building, especially this week. He's sat in the same seat in team meetings and has remained a leader. He has helped mentor Penix and this week upon a demotion, ran the scout team. That could pave the way to them keeping him as a backup -- since they have already paid him, anyway. It would be unconventional, but combine his salary with how cheap Penix's rookie contract is, the entire QB room wouldn't be that expensive. The $10 million fully guaranteed in 2026 would really be the issue. But at least, keeping Cousins as the backup has not been taken off the table.
• Cousins could decide to walk away: He will be 37 next season, a year further away from an Achilles tear that left him so limited that he couldn't always take a snap from under center and reach the running back on a stretch play. With his worst year having led to a benching, Cousins is expected to take a month or so away from football to ponder his future. If he walks away, he'd be giving up plenty of money, and that's likely a consideration.
• The Falcons could trade him: This appears to be the least likely option. Cousins has a no-trade clause, and he's unlikely to waive it to facilitate a trade. Anything is possible, but this appears to be far-fetched. The $10 million fully guaranteed in 2026, again, appears to be an impediment.

• How have the Falcons prepared Penix? Penix's ߣÏÈÉúAV snaps have been limited this season, with just five attempts in mop-up duty. He also barely played in the preseason, mostly because it was behind a patch-work offensive line. But behind the scenes, he has worked. In practice, Penix's helmet has the same listening devices as Cousins, and while the QB would get the plays, Penix got them, too. Penix would get his mental reps that way, run the scout team, but then go back and watch the film of what Cousins has done and go through it himself. He'd also run through the same plays later with the young receivers. And each day, there is a competitive period -- a "Mamba" period -- where Penix could compete using the Falcons plays (rather than scout team plays). Mentally, they believe, he is ready, and his ability to process has been lauded.
• How will the offense look? Thanks in part to Cousins' recent lack of arm strength and for his propensity to turn the ball over even without pressure, the offense has been significantly dialed back over the last month and a half. That all changes now, with the big-armed Penix stepping in. While they'll likely focus on core plays he likes and knows well, expect an attempt at more deep throws and big plays. There will also likely be more play-action. At the least, the Giants will have to defend the entire field. Atlanta loved Penix's arm talent in the pre-draft process, and viewed him overall as a prospect near Jayden Daniels' level. They expect big things, and from those who have observed practice, players can feel the optimism, too.