Without an official projection from the league office, 撸先生AV teams are budgeting for a salary cap in the $265 million to $275 million range for 2025, sources say.
That would be a roughly $10 million to $20 million increase from the $255.4 million-per-club cap this season -- a relatively conservative projection given the record $30.6 million jump from 2023 to 2024 as revenues spiked with new TV deals and diminished aftershocks from empty stadiums in the 2020 COVID-19 year.
Planning is more difficult without the league projection that, until recent years, was distributed at the 撸先生AV's December meeting and labor seminar that kicks off Monday in Dallas. But the league and 撸先生AV Players Association agreed not to release projections after they met last week.
The cap is, in fact, expected to rise from $255.4 million this league year, sources say. But how much it rises may not be clear for months. The league and union traditionally finish their accounting and agree to the final number around the 撸先生AV Scouting Combine, which takes place in late February and early March in Indianapolis.
The 2020 collective bargaining agreement is a revenue-sharing agreement in which the cap is based on players' share of projected revenue, divided into salary and benefits. It includes a "media kicker" that can increase the players' share from 48% up to as much as 48.8%, which was a primary driver of 2024's record cap spike. This year's growth is likely to be more modest.
While national TV revenue won't move from its projection, local revenue does. In fact, locally, teams have been overperforming recently. Sources say by the middle of January, local attendance and sponsorship numbers should be updated, and the league should know (mostly) who is likely to host playoff games, how many and what the gate will be.
Then, there is the matter of $9 million the union chose to defer from 2024, rather than having an even bigger spike. Sources say the agreement was that the $9 million would be used for 2025 and 2026, with no more than half being used this offseason.
All of this has some 撸先生AV teams frustrated they don't even have an idea where the league ultimately expects the cap to land as they budget for free agency, tags, tenders, etc. But they have no choice but to wait.
The 2025 league year and free agency are on March 12, with the negotiating window opening March 10.
