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The Chiefs keep winning close games -- their 27-19 victory over Houston was their 11th one-score win of the season -- and that’s the biggest reason they’re on the verge of capturing the top seed in the AFC playoffs. It’s also fair to say Kansas City has never needed home-field advantage more than at any other time in the Patrick Mahomes era. This team is about to play its third game in 11 days when it meets Pittsburgh on Christmas. It’s endured a variety of injuries to key players on both offense and defense, and its star quarterback just battled through a high ankle sprain to lead his team to its 14th victory of the season. The Chiefs now need one more victory to acquire that coveted first-round bye and set themselves up for a shot at a three-peat. Yes, it hasn’t been pretty. It’s also true that nobody remembers the style points once the postseason begins. This team is flawed but it also has won the last two Super Bowls. It will be a tough out regardless of seeding. 

The Bills got a scare from the Patriots in a 24-21 victory, but that also should tell you something about how prolific Buffalo has been lately. The Bills had scored at least 30 points in their previous eight games, including 48 against Detroit in Week 15 and 42 in a loss to the Rams in Week 14. Buffalo also has been trying to stay on the heels of the Chiefs in the pursuit of that top seed in the AFC, although time is running out. The Bills need Kansas City to drop its last two games while Buffalo wins out. Even without that bye, the Bills are the scariest team in the conference because of their explosiveness. Quarterback Josh Allen is the front-runner for league MVP and offensive coordinator Joe Brady has done a masterful job of utilizing an assortment of weapons. The defense has its weaknesses -- especially against teams with dominant running games -- but this clearly is a squad built to boat race anybody that lines up against it. 

The last two weeks have been rough on the Steelers, as they’ve taken double-digit losses to both Baltimore and Philadelphia. If that wasn’t bad enough, Pittsburgh will host Kansas City on Christmas Day, with all of three days rest following that defeat to the Ravens. The most obvious thing we’ve learned about the Steelers in those losses is how desperately they need wide receiver George Pickens to be healthy. He’s been sidelined with a hamstring injury over the last three games, and it’s killed the Pittsburgh offense. (The Steelers produced a total of 30 points against Philadelphia and Baltimore.) Pittsburgh’s vaunted defense also has taken some hits lately, as two starters in the secondary didn’t play against Baltimore (safety DeShon Elliott and cornerback Donte Jackson) and another was banged up during the game (cornerback Joey Porter Jr.). If there’s one team that needs to be as close to full strength as possible in this postseason, it’s Pittsburgh. It can win games off coaching and toughness. It can’t do it if it's not at its best. 

The Texans have the AFC South championship locked up, so they don’t have to sweat the end of the season in the same manner they did last year. The problem is this team will be limping into the postseason after creating so much excitement coming into the year. Houston already had lost wide receiver Stefon Diggs to a season-ending knee injury but another key wideout, Tank Dell, also sustained a significant knee injury in Saturday’s loss to Kansas City. The Texans also lost guard Shaq Mason and safety Jimmie Ward to injuries in that Chiefs game, which was especially painful given the issues Houston has had along the offensive line and the fact that Ward was filling in for injured slot corner Jalen Pitre. The good news here is that Houston has done a better job protecting quarterback C.J. Stroud after moving right tackle Tytus Howard to left guard. The defense also remains feisty, as Houston ranks among the best in the league at sacking the quarterback and forcing turnovers. The Texans still have enough juice to win a home playoff game if they face a limited offense. If they end up squaring off against a team as potent as the Ravens, their ride could end quickly. 

The Ravens have been trending in the right direction despite all the issues they had with their defense and kicking game earlier this season. The defense has become much stouter over the past month. It’s also a great sign that Derrick Henry just ran for 162 yards on 24 carries in Saturday’s win over Pittsburgh. He only had 13 carries for 65 yards in the Week 11 loss to the Steelers. Henry now has 1,636 rushing yards, which is probably far more than most expected from a running back who'll turn 31 on Jan. 4. You combine that with the season quarterback Lamar Jackson has produced (3,787 passing yards, 765 rushing yards, 40 total touchdowns and just four interceptions) and this offense looks downright scary heading into the playoffs. There are still real questions about how Jackson will perform in the high-pressure moments that define postseason success -- yes, it’s once again time to bring up the fact that his team has only won two of his six playoff starts -- but this is also the best version we’ve ever seen of him. If Baltimore isn’t undermined by the suddenly shaky kicking of Justin Tucker, then this looks like a team that can reach the Super Bowl. 

The Chargers are in position to clinch a playoff spot with their next game (in New England), and it’s hard to see them blowing that opportunity. This is a team that should understand how much a postseason appearance would mean to its psyche, especially in the first season with head coach Jim Harbaugh in charge. It felt like Harbaugh might need at least two years to turn the Chargers into winners. It says plenty that he’s changed the entire mindset of this organization in less than a calendar year. Quarterback Justin Herbert is playing with more conviction and taking great care of the football. The defense -- even though it’s dealt with more issues in the previous weeks -- has been the backbone of this squad. There also have been several contributions from players that were underrated or underestimated (from wide receiver Ladd McConkey to running back Gus Edwards to fullback/defensive lineman Scott Matlock). This is a team that should feel great about being ahead of schedule in its development. Unfortunately, it doesn’t have the firepower to compete with the heavyweights in this conference just yet. 

Like Harbaugh, Sean Payton has proven how much the right head coach can mean to a team with limited resources. The Broncos can claim their own wild-card spot with a win in Cincinnati, and that is a tremendous possibility for a team that seemed to be in disarray when the offseason began. The Broncos literally paid quarterback Russell Wilson nearly $38 million to leave town and replaced him with a rookie in Bo Nix who wasn’t exactly inspiring comparisons to a young John Elway. What the skeptics couldn’t see then was the team Payton was building while people were chuckling about Denver’s demise. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has led a unit that has been one of the most disruptive in the league all season. Nix has turned into a quick learner under Payton, and it’s worth wondering how he’ll perform as Denver adds more weapons to this offense in the coming years. Yes, the Thursday night loss to the Chargers was a tough one for a team that has been ascending each week. It also doesn’t mean Denver is going to implode after coming so far this season. Like the Chargers, the Broncos need more help to advance in the postseason. But they’re doing way more than we ever expected. 

The Colts ramped up the running game this week, with Jonathan Taylor rushing for 218 yards and three touchdowns and the entire team totaling 335 yards on the ground in a 38-30 win over Tennessee. This is also what is commonly known as a case of too little, too late. The Colts’ best shot at reaching the postseason involved beating Denver two Sundays ago, which didn’t happen. Indianapolis now needs to win out (against the Giants and Jaguars) and hope the Chargers implode. That’s a lot to hope for. 

The first thing the Dolphins must do is beat the Browns and Jets over the last two weeks of the season. Then it all comes down to miracles happening. Miami would need the Chargers or the Broncos to lose both of their remaining games and the Colts to end up with at least nine losses (because the Dolphins don’t have the tiebreaker advantage over Indianapolis). It’s hard to see all that happening. 

The Bengals still have a remote shot at the postseason because they’ll host the Broncos next weekend. If Cincinnati can win that game and prevail in Pittsburgh in Week 18, they still need Denver to lose to Kansas City in the season finale and two other teams (Indianapolis and Miami) to drop at least one more game. The Bengals haven’t had many breaks this season. Don’t expect that to change now. 

For all the concerns about Detroit and its injury woes, the Lions still control their destiny in the pursuit of the NFC’s top seed after Sunday’s win over Chicago. The Lions finish with a road trip to San Francisco and a home game against Minnesota (a contest that also could decide who wins the NFC North). It’s true the Lions have so many players on injured reserve that it’s probably not worth keeping count anymore (the number is now at 16). You know what else Detroit has? An offense that leads the league in scoring and remains capable of winning any shootout it winds up in during the postseason. It also has a head coach in Dan Campbell who’s not going to make excuses and is willing to try anything to give his squad a chance to win a football game. In a year where there isn’t a truly dominant team left standing at this point in the season, those reasons might just be enough to get the Lions their first Super Bowl win. 

The Eagles have been rolling so much over the past two months that it was hard to anticipate their 36-33 loss to Washington on Sunday. The biggest problem Philadelphia seemed to be dealing with was how to properly spin the drama that erupted between wide receiver A.J. Brown and quarterback Jalen Hurts a couple weeks ago. But sometimes things don’t go your way in this league, which is what happened to Philly against the Commanders. Once Hurts was knocked out of the game with a concussion in the first quarter, you knew the Commanders had to be giddy about the possibility for an upset. That loss also shouldn’t be seen as a troubling sign for Philadelphia. The offense still has an MVP candidate in Saquon Barkley, a sturdy offensive line, dynamic receivers and a quarterback in Hurts who can win with his arm and his legs. The defense gave up 36 points, but it also forced five turnovers. Jayden Daniels can overcome those types of problems with his brilliance. The Eagles are still a safe bet to make a run at the Super Bowl, and they might be fortunate enough to land the top seed in the NFC if Detroit and Minnesota falter. 

The Rams have been more impressive in their last two wins because they’ve had to grind to manufacture these victories. They beat the Jets by a score of 19-9 just 10 days after earning a 12- 6 victory over San Francisco on a Thursday night. Those were much different games than the Rams' 44-42 win over Buffalo in Week 14, but that’s what is so cool about this team. These Rams have some edge to them. It’s not all about the pretty passing attack led by Matthew Stafford and the creative scheming of head coach Sean McVay. These Rams like to batter opponents via the run a lot more (with Kyren Williams doing most of the damage), and they’re relying on a bevy of talent in the defensive front to disrupt opposing quarterbacks. It was easy to think the Rams would try to rebound from a 1-4 start by throwing the football all over the place. This team likes to beat people up and laugh while it’s doing it. A dominant run game and a tough front seven? That’s exactly what you need to battle with the likes of Detroit and Philadelphia. 

The Falcons won twice on Sunday, first by blowing out the Giants and then by watching Tampa Bay lose to Dallas. That Buccaneers defeat pushed Atlanta back to the top of the NFC South -- the Falcons have beaten Tampa twice already -- and all it has to do is win out to stay there. There’s a tough game coming next weekend at Washington, followed by the season finale at home against Carolina, but the Falcons are capable of taking both contests, largely because they know quarterback Kirk Cousins will no longer be throwing the football to the wrong team. Atlanta benched Cousins in favor of rookie Michael Penix Jr. and got the desired result: Penix led the team to a win over New York. The question now is whether Penix can repeat that feat against a better opponent and with greater ramifications. Penix was solid in his debut (18-of-27 for 202 yards with one interception that wasn't his fault), but he definitely helped the offense perform better than it had under Cousins in recent weeks. There’s enough talent around Penix for this team to make it into the playoffs. Just don’t expect the Falcons to stick around long if/when they get in. 

The Vikings haven’t gotten more love this season for obvious reasons: They’re not as prolific as the Lions, and they’re not as dramatic as the Eagles. That’s probably a good thing for head coach Kevin O’Connell because his team hasn’t had to worry about lofty expectations or unwanted distractions as it’s built the second-best record in the league. Minnesota’s 27-24 win over Seattle on Sunday was yet another example of how this team has thrived. The Vikes received big plays from their stars (Justin Jefferson finished with 10 receptions for 144 yards and two touchdowns), quarterback Sam Darnold delivered a gutsy performance (he threw the game-winning touchdown pass to Jefferson after injuring his ankle moments earlier) and the defense sealed the victory (this time with an interception by Theo Jackson). Doubters have been waiting all season for Darnold to fall apart, but it hasn’t happened. They’ve probably been anticipating the Vikings plateauing at some point, but that hasn’t been the case, either. This team is simply well coached and more talented than many people wanted to believe. It’s also good enough to go deep into the playoffs. 

It’s rare to have two wild cards with the potential to reach the Super Bowl, but the Packers will be as dangerous as any division champion in this postseason. They’ve only been beaten by the powerhouses of NFC -- the Eagles, Vikings and the Lions (twice). Aside from a 24-14 defeat in that first meeting with Detroit, the other three losses were decided by a total of 10 points. That tells you this isn’t a team to be trifled with come January. The Packers weren’t nearly as good as a wild card last season, and they dominated the Cowboys on Super Wild Card Weekend before nearly pulling an upset over the 49ers in the Divisional Round. This year’s team is better for a variety of reasons. One is that quarterback Jordan Love is rounding into form again after dealing with injuries and turnovers earlier this season. He also has a dominant back in Josh Jacobs, a player who has produced another season worthy of All-Pro honors. Let’s also not forget about a defense that ranks among the best in the league in forcing turnovers and limiting points (and that unit just manhandled the floundering New Orleans Saints on Monday night). The bottom line is you can’t sleep on The Pack. They’re deep, balanced, well-coached and capable of beating anybody seeded ahead of them.

The Commanders needed every bit of that win over Philadelphia. It was a stark reminder of all the good vibes this team created at the start of the season, back when Jayden Daniels alerted us to the fact that he’s the newest star quarterback to arrive in this league. It’s one thing to take down the Titans and Saints, which the Commanders had done prior to Sunday's Eagles game. It’s quite another when you beat the hottest team in the league, a squad that had ripped off 10 straight wins. Washington had lost to Philadelphia in the midst of a three-game losing streak earlier this season. The Commanders also had lost much of that early-season luster as the offense slowed down and Daniels dealt with a rib injury. Sunday’s win told us there’s still plenty of fight in this team. The Commanders trailed by 14 at one point and committed five turnovers ... and still won. This already has a been a rewarding season in Washington considering that this team had picked second overall last April, when it selected Daniels. The Commanders are not likely to do much damage in the postseason -- they’d probably end up facing Detroit, Philadelphia or Minnesota on the road in the first round -- but the future remains bright. 

The Buccaneers did the one thing they could ill-afford to do this weekend: lose a winnable game. In falling to Dallas on Sunday night, Tampa Bay dropped into a first-place tie with Atlanta, which does the Buccaneers no good since Atlanta owns the tiebreaker on the strength of winning both games between the two teams. The Bucs finish with an easier schedule -- they’ll face the Panthers and Saints -- but they no longer control their destiny. They need Atlanta to lose somewhere in the next two weeks. 

That was a rough loss to Minnesota, and it might be one the Seahawks don’t rebound from. Their best chance of reaching the postseason involves winning the NFC West, primarily because there are so many wild-card teams that already have reached the 10-win mark. Seattle is now a full game behind the Rams and the Seahawks play in Los Angeles for the season finale. It doesn’t look good. 

The Ravens' first-year defensive coordinator should be much happier about what he’s seen from his unit of late. Baltimore’s defense dealt with a variety of issues earlier this season, including inconsistent effort and miscommunication in the secondary that resulted in big plays by opponents. That same bunch has allowed only one team to gain more than 300 yards in the last four games. It also forced two turnovers in Saturday’s win over Pittsburgh, including an interception that cornerback Marlon Humphrey returned for a touchdown. Orr’s defense is getting right at exactly the right time.

The Rams’ passing game dominates the spotlight, but Williams has been essential to this team pushing itself back into contention for the NFC West crown. He ran for 122 yards and touchdown in a 19-9 win over the Jets, marking the third time in the last four games that he’s gone over the 100-yard mark. Just as telling is how often the Rams have leaned on Williams lately. He’s had 81 carries in the last three games. That tells you Williams -- who has already set a career high in rushing yards (1,243) and tied his personal best in total touchdowns (15) -- better be ready for even more responsibilities in the coming weeks.

This rookie tight end has been one of the few bright spots for a team mired in a horrible season. Bowers had 11 receptions for 99 yards in a win over Jacksonville on Sunday. More importantly, he’s now on the verge of breaking the league record for most receiving yards by a rookie tight end (1,076 by Mike Ditka). Bowers has 101 receptions and 1,067 yards this season. He's going to be a monster for years to come.

The Seahawks quarterback has endured a rough two weeks, as his team has stumbled into second place in the NFC West. Smith threw for 314 yards and three touchdowns in a 27-24 loss to Minnesota, but he also tossed two interceptions, including a pick by Vikings safety Theo Jackson that clinched the game in the final minute. Smith thew an interception in a 30-13 loss to Green Bay a week earlier before being knocked out of that game with a knee injury. Smith now has 15 interceptions on the season. Only Atlanta’s Kirk Cousins has thrown more.

It’s been a long season for the 49ers head coach, whose team was officially eliminated from playoff contention this weekend. There were plenty of things Shanahan couldn’t control that factored into his team’s demise -- including injuries to key players such as Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk -- but the most important takeaway here is that this was the last great opportunity for Shanahan to win a Lombardi Trophy with this core group. Some valuable members are nearing free agency, and quarterback Brock Purdy will be eligible for a massive contract extension this offseason. It's been a good run with this current bunch, but it’s about to get much harder for Shanahan to compete for championships.  

The Giants quarterback had two interceptions returned for touchdowns in Sunday’s loss to Atlanta (one by Falcons safety Jessie Bates III and the other by edge rusher Matthew Judon). Lock now has three pick-sixes on the year, which is an interesting fact only because it’s not even close to the worst thing that has happened to that franchise in a miserable season. It’s just been one of those of those years for the Giants.

This is one of two games on Christmas Day and the stakes are high for both teams. The Chiefs can clinch the top seed in the AFC playoffs with a victory. If they lose, they’ll need either a victory at Denver in the season finale or a loss by Buffalo to claim that first-round bye. The Steelers are still fighting for the AFC North title, as their loss to Baltimore on Saturday left them in a tie for first place. Pittsburgh currently holds the tiebreaker advantage over the Ravens, but a home loss by the Steelers on Christmas obviously would put a damper on those hopes. Should we also mention this will be the third game in 11 days for both teams? This one has street fight written all over it.

• DraftKings odds: -550
• Weeks in top five: 16
• Next game: vs. Jets | Sunday, Dec. 29

• DraftKings odds: +400
• Weeks in top five: 14
• Next game: at Texans | Wednesday, Dec. 25

• DraftKings odds: +1200
• Weeks in top five: 6
• Next game: vs. Cowboys | Sunday, Dec. 29

• DraftKings odds: +2000
• Weeks in top five: 10
• Next game: at 49ers | Monday, Dec. 30

• DraftKings odds: +7000
• Weeks in top five: 8
• Next game: vs. Packers | Sunday, Dec. 29