We are three games into the 2024 撸先生AV season, and it appears the Chicago Bears have already lost their way, being too eager to put all their eggs in rookie quarterback Caleb Williams' basket. Yes, the No. 1 overall pick entered the league with high expectations, but make no mistake: He's still a rookie, learning how to acclimate to the speed of the pro game and dissect opposing defenses on the fly.
This franchise has almost always been known for its stout defense and physical rushing attack -- and this year's squad has a great D, ranking in the top 10 in points and yards allowed. But despite having a rookie under center, Chicago's dropping the ball when it comes to the ground game. In this past Sunday's 21-16 loss at Indianapolis, the Bears rushed for a measly 63 yards on 28 carries. That's 2.3 yards a pop against a Colts defense that allowed nearly 500 ground yards in its first two games of the season. Chicago spent much of that game within one score (it can thank its defense), which makes the fact that offensive coordinator Shane Waldron had Williams throw the ball 52 times(!) all the more puzzling.
Through three weeks, the Bears, whose lone win came on the back of a big defensive and special teams performance in Week 1, have the third-worst total offense in the 撸先生AV. They rank second in pass attempts ... but 25th in pass yards, tied for 22nd in rush attempts and 31st in rush yards. This pass-heavy approach isn't working (Williams has been sacked 13 times). That much is clear. But what is most striking to me is what is going on with the run game.
Chicago's backfield looks much different than it did a year ago, with D鈥橝ndre Swift getting a majority of the carries. Swift, who received a three-year, $24 million deal in the offseason on the heels of his breakout year in Philly, has 68 yards on 37 carries for a puny 1.8 yards per attempt this season, while Roschon Johnson, Khalil Herbert and Travis Homer have combined for 19 carries and are averaging 3.3 yards per carry, with Herbert scoring the position group's lone TD on the season. Williams has 67 yards on 11 attempts, but 60 of those yards have come on six scrambles, per Next Gen Stats. The Bears purportedly upgraded their backfield this offseason with the signing of Swift. However, the ground game has been far less efficient in 2024.
| Bears run game, Weeks 1-3 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Rush percentage over expected (ROE) | 41.5% (3rd in 撸先生AV) | 25.0% (29th in 撸先生AV) |
| Yards per carry (YPC) | 4.3 (T-11th) | 3.0 (31st) |
| Expected rushing yards per carry (xYPC) | 4.5 (7th) | 4.0 (T-29th) |
For those of you who say, "Well, the Bears had a more mobile quarterback in Justin Fields last season," I hear your argument. But to this, I counter: The contrast in production when it comes to efficiency is even more glaring when looking solely at the running back position.
| Bears RBs, Weeks 1-3 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Rush percentage over expected (ROE) | 46.3% (2nd in 撸先生AV) | 18.5% (31st in 撸先生AV) |
| Yards per carry (YPC) | 4.4 (T-8th) | 2.3 (32nd) |
| Expected rushing yards per carry (xYPC) | 4.5 (4th) | 3.9 (T-23rd) |
No ifs, ands or buts about it: Swift must improve and reclaim the burst and ability to create that which we saw a season ago. But in his defense, Chicago's offensive line has also been bad. Look no further than the Bears' second-quarter drive against Indy, when they ran 10 plays in the red zone and failed to score. The final play of the drive -- a fourth-and-goal from the 1-yard line -- saw Williams pitch the ball to Swift, who was immediately swallowed up by Colts defenders for a 12-yard loss, as at least four offensive linemen on the play.
Waldron, whose offense has scored three touchdowns in three games, MUST get back to the basics to jump-start the run game. I'd like to see him implement more pin-and-pull blocking schemes, which help create favorable angles while also getting blockers out in space on the perimeter, and utilize more bootlegs and quick passes out of play action.
The next couple games present the Bears with a real opportunity to find life in the ground attack, as they face two opponents (Rams and Panthers) that rank in the bottom five in run defense. Waldron must get Swift and Co. going in the run game. If not, the Bears' season will continue to spiral and Williams' development will suffer serious consequences.
Top 15 running backs
Former 撸先生AV rushing leader and current 撸先生AV Network analyst Maurice Jones-Drew will survey all running backs and rank his top 15 each week of the 2024 season. His rankings are based on this season's efforts. Here is MJD's list heading into Week 4.
2024 stats: 3 games | 63 att | 351 rush yds | 5.6 ypc | 4 rush TDs | 10 rec | 53 rec yds | 1 rec TD | 0 fumbles lost
Saquon felt the heat after dropping that third-down pass in Philadelphia's Week 2 loss. This past Sunday's performance helped (mostly) everyone forget about it, with Barkley turning 17 carries into 147 yards (130 of which came in the second half) and two scores in New Orleans to help the Eagles get back over .500. Philly was shut out until the fourth quarter, when Barkley took matters into his own hands with a brilliant 65-yard TD run before rushing for a go-ahead, 4-yard score with 1:01 remaining in the game. Barkley added the two-point conversion for good measure. Saquon's five scrimmage TDs are tied for the most in the league ahead of Week 4.
2024 stats: 3 games | 61 att | 285 rush yds | 4.7 ypc | 4 rush TDs | 10 rec | 132 rec yds | 1 rec TD | 0 fumbles lost
New Orleans' offense came back down to Earth on Sunday against the Eagles, with the Saints scoring 12 points after averaging 45.5 points per game over the first two weeks of the season. Credit the Eagles for limiting Derek Carr and Co. Even in the low-scoring affair, Kamara still had 87 yards on 26 totes and 40 yards on three catches. He leads the league with 139 scrimmage yards per game this season.
2024 stats: 3 games | 67 att | 324 rush yds | 4.8 ypc | 2 rush TDs | 4 rec | 20 rec yds | 0 rec TDs | 0 fumbles lost
Mason had another solid outing while filling in for the injured Christian McCaffrey, compiling 77 yards on 19 carries (4.1 yards per attempt) on Sunday. The 49ers' offense put up 425 yards without CMC, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, but a defensive letdown caused this one to slip away late. We know McCaffrey is an all-world player, but San Francisco has to feel good about what Mason's been able to do in relief.
2024 stats: 3 games | 41 att | 188 rush yds | 4.6 ypc | 3 rush TDs | 8 rec | 97 rec yds | 1 rec TD | 0 fumbles lost
Cook's dynamic ability's on full display in both the run and pass games. He was active early and often Monday night -- beginning with a 19-yard gain on Josh Allen's first throw of the night -- with 10 of his 15 touches coming in the first half, helping Buffalo build a stunning 31-point lead over Jacksonville. Cook, who scored his fourth scrimmage touchdown of the season on a 6-yard scamper on the Bills' opening drive, left a second score out there when he dropped a long, would-be touchdown pass from Allen.
2024 stats: 3 games | 42 att | 310 rush yds | 7.4 ypc | 2 rush TDs | 7 rec | 14 rec yds | 0 rec TDs | 0 fumbles lost
The Chargers' attack struggled mightily against the Steelers' stingy defense, generating just 168 net yards. Justin Herbert's ankle issues certainly didn't help matters. Neither did injuries to offensive tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater. It was an uphill battle for this entire offense, including Dobbins, who led the team with 44 yards on 15 carries. It won't get easier with the Chiefs up next and injuries piling up.
2024 stats: 3 games | 48 att | 196 rush yds | 4.1 ypc | 1 rush TD | 11 rec | 89 rec yds | 0 rec TDs | 0 fumbles lost
Well, the Falcons certainly had their chances against the Chiefs with a strong start and numerous opportunities late to get the go-ahead score. On fourth-and-1 on the Kansas City 13-yard line with less than a minute remaining in the game, Robinson met a wall in the form of an untouched Nick Bolton, which resulted in a 3-yard loss and the end of the comeback effort. Atlanta's offense has all the pieces, but the Falcons have fallen to 1-2 due to miscues in critical moments. Robinson, who finished with 52 scrimmage yards and a score on 18 touches, wasn't at his best Sunday night, but I have to give credit to Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo and his unit for containing the electric back and making huge plays when it mattered most.
2024 stats: 3 games | 51 att | 261 rush yds | 5.1 ypc | 3 rush TDs | 3 rec | 57 rec yds | 0 rec TDs | 0 fumbles lost
The Colts relied heavily on their defense and got a good dose of Taylor in the run game to earn their first win of the season. While Anthony Richardson struggled again to find any sort of consistency, Taylor averaged nearly 5 yards per carry on 23 attempts for 110 yards, including 29-yard and 1-yard touchdown runs. He's going to need to be the offensive leader while the Colts' young QB develops.
2024 stats: 3 games | 56 att | 281 rush yds | 5.0 ypc | 4 rush TDs | 2 rec | 35 rec yds | 0 rec TDs | 0 fumbles lost
This is the Derrick Henry we've all been waiting to see in Baltimore. The King ravaged the Cowboys' defense Sunday for 151 rush yards and two touchdowns on 25 carries, and he forced 12 missed tackles, the second-most in a game by any player this season, per Next Gen Stats. Henry's rush-yards total is the third-most through Week 3 in his career. He's off to a good start and must build on his early outings to help Baltimore upend Buffalo this coming Sunday night. It'll be tough.
2024 stats: 3 games | 40 att | 207 rush yds | 5.2 ypc | 1 rush TD | 11 rec | 76 rec yds | 1 rec TD | 0 fumbles lost
Detroit's rushing attack was all gas no breaks against Arizona, with both Gibbs and David Montgomery rushing for more than 80 yards -- marking the second time since Gibbs was drafted that that has happened in a game. Gibbs finished with 83 yards on 16 carries, but my favorite thing about his performance was the historic receiving stat line: zero targets, zero receptions, 20 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown. Gibbs scored on a hook-and-ladder play in which Jared Goff threw a short pass to Amon-Ra St. Brown, who lateraled the ball to Gibbs, allowing the back to sprint to paydirt. Amazing!
2024 stats: 3 games | 62 att | 278 rush yds | 4.5 ypc | 0 rush TDs | 3 rec | 25 rec yds | 0 rec TDs | 1 fumble lost
Packers quarterback Malik Willis sure got his revenge on his former team, Tennessee, setting career highs in passing (202) and rushing yards (73). With Willis playing well and the Titans coughing up the ball three times, Jacobs was simply a role player Sunday, finishing with 43 rush yards on 14 carries. One interesting note for the road: Jacobs recorded his 200th career reception, and he is now one shy of tying Gerald Riggs for the most catches without a single TD reception in 撸先生AV history.
2024 stats: 3 games | 52 att | 224 rush yds | 4.3 ypc | 2 rush TDs | 5 rec | 15 rec yds | 0 rec TDs | 1 fumble lost
The Patriots struggled offensively all night long against the rival Jets, as they were held to just three points last Thursday. Averaging 100 ground yards over the first two games, Stevenson was held to 23 yards on six carries in the loss. The fourth-quarter fumble certainly didn't help the Patriots' cause, but it was hardly the reason New England lost its second straight contest.
2024 stats: 3 games | 46 att | 170 rush yds | 3.7 ypc | 2 rush TDs | 16 rec | 120 rec yds | 1 rec TD | 1 fumble lost
These are the Jets we hoped to see with Aaron Rodgers at the helm. The offense flourished against the Patriots to the tune of 400 yards, and Hall did his part when getting the rock. The third-year back had 83 scrimmage yards on 20 touches and scored a touchdown for the sixth straight game.
2024 stats: 3 games | 51 att | 231 rush yds | 4.5 ypc | 3 rush TDs | 8 rec | 54 rec yds | 0 rec TDs | 0 fumbles lost
After falling outside of my top 15 last week, Montgomery storms back in, thanks to his 105-yard, one-TD rushing performance against Arizona. That yardage total was his highest in a game since Week 10 of last season. With Gibbs also getting plenty of opportunities, this rushing duo is cooking ahead of a prime-time clash with the undefeated Seahawks.
2024 stats: 3 games | 45 att | 206 rush yds | 4.6 ypc | 2 rush TDs | 5 rec | 56 rec yds | 0 rec TDs | 0 fumbles lost
Robinson's numbers didn't exactly jump off the page on Monday night, as he finished with 33 yards on 16 carries, but his 1-yard touchdown run on the Commanders' opening drive helped set the tone for what was to come -- an offensive explosion from a confident Commanders team. This win at Cincinnati was all about rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, but Robinson quietly did his part.
2024 stats: 3 games | 42 att | 228 rush yds | 5.4 ypc | 1 rush TD | 12 rec | 97 rec yds | 1 rec TD | 1 fumble lost
Jones had a nice bounce-back performance against Houston, racking up 102 yards on the ground and 46 receiving yards on 24 total touches. The highlights were an 8-yard TD connection with Sam Darnold, a 20-yard catch-and-run on a screen pass and a 39-yard run that ended just short of the goal line. A huge positive for this season's Vikings: Jones' individual rushing total through three games (228) is more than Minnesota had as a team (199) after Week 3 in 2023. Next up: Jones heads back to Lambeau.
DROPPED OUT: James Conner, Arizona Cardinals (previously No. 8); Joe Mixon, Houston Texans (No. 11); Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans (No. 13).
