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And then there were eight! With only a quarter of the ߣÏÈÉúAV's teams left in the race to Super Bowl LIX, who will help their teams advance this weekend? Check out which players should stand out in each of the four Divisional Round matchups.
Patrick Mahomes is not a player you want to face in the postseason. Since becoming the Chiefs’ starting QB in 2018, Mahomes has made the playoffs every year and has yet to lose before the AFC Championship Game. And Mahomes has already shown he has answers for whatever the Texans might throw at him. Houston has generated a league-high 38.9% pressure rate this season, but Mahomes is surgical in the quick passing game. In a against the Texans, Mahomes completed 17 of 19 quick passes (under 2.5 seconds) for 155 yards and one TD. That 83.6% completion percentage on such passes was the highest in the ߣÏÈÉúAV this season, per .
Houston also opted to play man coverage on a season-high 48.9% of dropbacks against Kansas City. Mahomes responded by throwing for 151 passing yards against man coverage, his most in a game this season. And if DeMeco Ryans’ defense does flush Mahomes out of the pocket? Good luck. In the last six postseasons, Mahomes has thrown for 14 TDs on passes outside the pocket -- nine more than any other QB -- while scrambling for 517 yards, 32 first downs and four TDs. Mahomes is inevitable and with an extra week off to study Houston’s defensive tendencies, he should ink a positive next chapter in his legendary playoff story. (
Daily Fantasy Sports Outlook (from ߣÏÈÉúAV.com's Matt Okada)
DraftKings Price: $6,000
You've heard of Mr. October in baseball? (Reggie Jackson, for the MLB-illiterate.) Well, Patrick Mahomes is Mr. January. In his career, Mahomes has averaged 24.3 fantasy points per game this month, more than any other player ever with at least seven career January contests. Mahomes also improved over the second half of this season -- averaging 20.2 PPG since Week 9 -- and tagged the Texans for 23.7 points a month ago. He might not have the floor or the ceiling of Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen, but Mr. January comes at a significant DFS discount in comparison, making him valuable for lineups focusing elsewhere.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is not talked about enough, but he should be after this weekend. St. Brown’s strengths align well with Washington’s weaknesses on defense. The Commanders, who generated pressure on only 26.1% of Baker Mayfield's dropbacks in the Wild Card Round, could plan to bring additional heat against Jared Goff in Detroit. However, Washington has allowed the highest explosive pass rate (26.1%) when blitzing this season, per . What’s more? St. Brown is an exceptional blitz beater. The Lions WR is tied for the league lead with 27 first-down conversions against the blitz this season and sits above his ߣÏÈÉúAV peers with 88 such first downs since 2022.
Traditionally a slot threat, St. Brown has aligned out wide on over half his snaps this season (51.2%) for the first time in his career. And he has been just as lethal. St. Brown’s 89.3% catch rate from a wide alignment is the highest by an WR (with at least 25 such targets) in a season since at least 2016. St. Brown should feast no matter where he aligns or who defends him. Commanders CB Marshon Lattimore has allowed 10 receptions for 141 yards and two TDs against WR1s over his past two games, while his teammate Benjamin St-Juste has allowed a team-high 686 yards as the nearest defender in coverage this season. Prepare for the Sun God to shine bright on Saturday night. ()
DFS Outlook (from Okada)
DraftKings Price: $7,200
The Commanders' largely improved defense has a bit of a flaw in its armor when it comes to efficiency against the slot. Washington has allowed the fourth-highest passer rating, EPA per dropback and success rate on targets to the slot this year and has allowed 12 touchdowns on those targets (tied for third-most) despite tying for sixth-fewest slot targets faced. Amon-Ra St. Brown spends about 34 percent of his snaps in the slot (highest on the team) and had five receiving scores from that alignment in 2024 (only Brian Thomas Jr. had more among wideouts). St. Brown's price is high, but so are his floor and his ceiling in a sneaky-good matchup.
A.J. Brown might not have had the 2025 playoff debut he expected, but a bounce-back opportunity is ripe for the picking this weekend. Brown’s Eagles draw a familiar foe in a Rams team that is playing inspired football for its city. In a in Los Angeles, Brown snagged six of seven targets for 109 yards and a TD. Four of those six receptions (for 86 yards) came against CB Darious Williams, who lined up against Brown on 78.3% of the WR’s routes, per .
Brown excels against man coverage, generating the second-most receiving yards (505) and most yards per route (4.2) against it this season. However, the Rams have trended toward a zone-heavy scheme, deploying zone coverage on a season-long average of 73.6% snaps per game. The good news for Brown is he has already proven he can beat Los Angeles’ zone as he went a perfect 3-3 on targets against zone in Week 12. Brown will certainly have his work cut out for him if he hopes to replicate that performance. ()
DFS Outlook (from Okada)
DraftKings Price: $7,000
A.J. Brown is coming off an absolute dud on Wild Card Weekend -- one catch for 10 yards on three targets -- where his most memorable moment involved a book on the sideline and not his play on the field. But we've seen "squeaky wheel" games from AJB already this season: like his back-to-back 20-burgers following the alleged "beef" with Jalen Hurts last month. Brown also torched the Rams back in Week 12, with 109 yards and a touchdown on a 37 percent target share, in what remains the last loss by L.A.'s starters. Brown should bounce back in the divisional round and play a crucial part in Philly's chances at winning.
No QB matchup is juicier than this : a battle between MVP candidates Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. And the data shows Jackson will live up to the hype. Jackson threw for 2,989 yards and boasts a 23:3 TD to INT ratio against zone coverage this season, while leading the league in passer rating (119.1) and yards per attempt (9.5), per . His 119.1 passer rating against zone coverage is the highest by any QB since 2018. Meanwhile, the Bills use zone coverage at the ߣÏÈÉúAV’s eighth-highest rate, surrendering 17 passing TDs and an average passer rating of 93.8 to opposing QBs.
Jackson posted 210 scrimmage yards and three TDs in a 25-point over Buffalo. On that night, none of Jackson’s 18 pass attempts came via tight window throws (< 1 yard of separation). Instead, Baltimore’s speedy WRs ran free, and Jackson found them on 12 of 13 passes when they were open (3+ yards of separation). In a potential shootout, Jackson will likely look to push the ball deep -- a muscle the Ravens QB has flexed throughout the season. Jackson’s 27 TD passes and 57.8% completion rate on downfield passes (10+ air yards) are both the ߣÏÈÉúAV’s highest metrics. Even if WR Zay Flowers is a no-go on Sunday, Jackson has proven he can spread the wealth. In Week 4, none of Jackson’s four downfield completions went to Flowers. ()
DFS Outlook (from Okada)
DraftKings Price: $7,800
If you're not interested in the "discount" route at QB, you may as well go with fantasy's top scorer in Lamar Jackson. The Ravens QB has averaged a whopping 25.2 fantasy points per game, including his 23 points in the Wild Card Round, and hasn't fallen short of 20 points in any of his last seven games. Incredibly, Jackson has more games this year with 30-plus fantasy points (four) than he does games with fewer than 20 (three). The MVP duel with Josh Allen and the Bills is billed as an extremely close one with a ton of projected points, and if does indeed turn into a shootout, you can expect the Ravens QB to be leading the charge.
