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Maybe the Bills or a Joe Flacco-led Browns team can come into Baltimore and win in the playoffs. After all, the Ravens have already lost to the Browns at home, and Gardner Minshew won there once. But the way this team is playing reminds me of the Denver Nuggets or Texas Rangers getting white hot at exactly the right time en route to winning the NBA and MLB championships, respectively. If there's an immediate worry, it's in the secondary. Kyle Hamilton and Brandon Stephens missed Sunday's win over Miami, and Marlon Humphrey (calf) and Daryl Worley (stinger) both left the game with injuries. Of course, Baltimore can survive without them in Week 18, with the Ravens having already clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and there will be two weeks of additional healing time before their first playoff game. Regardless, Lamar Jackson's superpower -- the reason he just feels like the clear-cut MVP right now -- is that he can offset some of your problems and coax an entire team, not just an offense, to turn in a dominant performance any given game.

As with the Ravens, winning the top seed early (thanks, Philly!) and the first-round bye that comes with it was a crucial development for the 49ers, given their deteriorating health, with that No. 1 designation essentially building in an additional week's lag time to get right. They've been running on fumes a bit on defense, and Christian McCaffrey could use a good spa day. He left Sunday's win over Washington with a calf injury, and the focus will be on getting him (and some other key contributors) healthy for the postseason. Can the Niners regain their dominant form? I say yes. The Week 16 loss to the Ravens conjured some of the same concerning feelings we had about San Francisco during the team's three-game losing streak in Weeks 6 through 8. That said, the Week 9 bye really did inject some life into this group. The same thing can happen with the added rest before the first playoff game at Levi's Stadium in a few weeks. If McCaffrey, both lines of scrimmage and Brock Purdy are healthy and mentally sharp, this can be a Super Bowl team, in spite of any recent setbacks.

They largely played a good game against the Lions, which was important to see, even if it came down to a controversial penalty on Detroit's late two-point conversation. The Cowboys didn't look quite as invulnerable at home as they have for most games at AT&T Stadium over the past few years, letting things start to slip away late on Saturday. The tables certainly turned the following day with the Eagles' loss to the Cardinals, which suddenly made Dallas the massive favorite to clinch the NFC East title in Week 18. Setting aside Philly's loss, this win was significant for the Cowboys, who otherwise would have extended a losing streak.

The Dolphins were demolished by the Ravens. So why did I move Miami down only one spot? There are some people out there who firmly believe this is a paper tiger of a team, having tallied roughly as many bad losses as impressive wins in December. And I hear you, I really do! But it has felt for some time now that the ߣÏÈÉúAV's top tier consists of two teams, the Ravens and 49ers, and then there's a drop-off to Tier 2, where six or seven squads -- depending on what you think about the Eagles -- are grouped fairly close together. (I did think twice about ranking Dallas ahead of Miami, considering the Dolphins beat the Cowboys in Week 16.) On their best day, the Dolphins deserve to be high in Tier 2. On days such as Sunday, when they opened the door for the Bills to take the AFC East from them in Week 18, they resemble a team that could be on first-round elimination watch. Even if the Dolphins win a playoff game, would you pick them in a rematch at Baltimore?

The Lions are licking their wounds after the hotly debated two-point play and are now left to wonder what might have been. If they would have beaten the Cowboys, they'd have had a shot to play for the NFC's top seed in Week 18. They're still guaranteed at least the No. 3 seed and a home playoff game, but the loss to Dallas hurts immensely. Once more, this group's resilience will be tested. There is so much to be encouraged by, as the Lions have withstood a number of challenges this season, and they'll be a tough playoff out, especially in Detroit -- but even if they have to go on the road, where they're 6-3 this season, with some quality wins. Dating back to Week 9 of last season, this team's record is 19-7. Dan Campbell and Jared Goff have answered far more questions than they have not. The issue now is whether this team is capable of making a Super Bowl run. In an NFC field where every top contender has had a shaky patch this season, I'll still give Detroit an outside shot right now.

The past two weeks have provided evidence of what I warned about after the Bills' dominant Week 15 win over the Cowboys. It felt like the vast majority of my Power Rankings colleagues the world around leaped them into the top three or four teams -- believe me, I heard plenty about it from you on social media. But I wasn't yet ready to graduate them to the head of the second class. There's no doubt Buffalo has played some clutch football, with a more balanced, composed effort all around. But Sunday's win over the Patriots marked the second straight game in which the Bills struggled to put away a team that will be picking in the top 10 of the 2024 ߣÏÈÉúAV Draft. It's less concerning when the Patriots give the Bills a game, as we're still talking about a Hall of Fame defensive coach on the other sideline. But would Buffalo be able to overcome another sloppy performance in the upcoming for-all-the-division-marbles Week 18 showdown at Miami? That feels like a stretch. There's still some fine-tuning to be done, and the Bills aren't even yet in the postseason. This thing is far from over.

In our search for teams capable of winning it all this season, the Browns make the cut -- even if some still doubt their credentials. They're not doing it in any kind of expected or predictable way, which is how it tends to go for teams that are absolutely ravaged by injury. But you had better believe I am taking seriously a team that has beaten the Ravens and 49ers -- and has seemingly upgraded at quarterback (over P.J. Walker and an injured Deshaun Watson) since those games. Joe Flacco is getting a little loosey-goosey with the interceptions, but he definitely has the playoff pedigree, big-game nerves and deep-ball arm to will this team on a postseason run. It's possible there is no group better-equipped to deal with the Ravens, because of Flacco and a dominant defense. Cleveland might be the team -- along with Buffalo -- that no one wants to face on the AFC side. You could even argue the Browns are more dangerous than Buffalo, and I might not put up much of a fight, even as banged up as Cleveland is.

It's easy, and quite fair, to say that the Chiefs are not the team we expected them to be this season. But that doesn't mean they can't make some noise still. Sunday's win over the Bengals provided a snapshot of how they could reinvent themselves on the fly and potentially reemerge in the playoffs as a threat. Defense and Isiah Pacheco are the two elements that give Kansas City the best chance. Now, don't twist my words; I am not saying Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are incapable of leading a hot January run. Of course they are. But right now, the aerial game is operating at a passable level; meanwhile, the Chiefs' defense and Pacheco (when healthy) have been the two biggest X-factors. The defense shut out Cincinnati for the final 36-plus minutes on Sunday, including a massive fourth-down stop midway through the third quarter, and Pacheco was the offense early on. We give Tom Brady ultimate credit for the Super Bowl rings he won in 2018 with the Patriots and 2020 with the Bucs, but those teams had a similar makeup to these Chiefs in a few ways.

After beating the Bills in overtime in Week 12, the Eagles stood at 10-1. They had the slight MVP favorite in Jalen Hurts. Their offense and defense had ranked among the top 10 in the ߣÏÈÉúAV at various points in the season. And then? December brought an abject collapse, including one tighter-than-it-should've-been win over the Giants and four losses. The Eagles failed to surpass 19 points scored in three of those defeats. They've allowed 51 points in 60 second-half minutes at home vs. the Giants and Cardinals over the past two weeks. It was utterly bizarre that every time I tuned in to Sunday's loss to Arizona, the Cardinals had the ball. Philly has now coughed up control of the NFC East and must face the reality of having to play on the road in the playoffs, barring something wacky happening in Week 18. Are the Eagles cooked? I won't completely bail, but they're very much on double-secret probation and might be irreparable. This isn't exactly Constantinople falling, but it's shocking, nonetheless.

I believe this is the start of the ߣÏÈÉúAV's Tier 3, with the drop from Tier 2 being much smaller than the gap between Tier 2 and Tier 1, as the flagging Eagles muddy the waters a bit. The Rams are a threat, no doubt -- both to opponents and to themselves. They secured a spot in the playoffs, where they're capable of pulling a road shocker and perhaps just as likely to allow the other team to steal the game late. Since the big over the Browns, the Rams have lost to the Ravens in overtime in Baltimore and hung on for three skin-of-their-teeth victories (having led in all three games by double digits) over teams sitting outside of the current playoff picture. The kicking situation has been part of the problem, with two missed FG tries and two missed XP attempts in that four-game span. For the season, Rams kickers have missed a combined 15 tries, the worst mark in the ߣÏÈÉúAV. Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams and the receivers give Los Angeles a real chance to make noise, but there's an undeniable volatility about this team.

C.J. Stroud returned to action Sunday, and all was right in the world. He'll march into Lucas Oil Stadium this Saturday night, in his biggest game since he and Ohio State lost to Georgia in the Peach Bowl one year ago, with a chance to lead his Texans into the postseason (and possibly to an AFC South title) as a rookie. But it's going to have to be more than just about Stroud. The last time the Texans faced the Colts, Stroud threw for 384 yards -- and lost. A whole season has unfolded since then (Anthony Richardson started that game for Indy), as Houston was struggling with its offensive line and run game at the time. So Week 18 will feel like a completely different matchup, I suspect, especially if the Texans can get healthy. Will Anderson Jr. returned Sunday with a timely two-sack performance. Getting sack leader Jonathan Greenard and DT Maliek Collins back on the field would be big developments.

Even if it came against the league's worst team, Sunday's victory was important for a number of reasons. First, it kept the Jaguars breathing in the playoff race and kept the door open for a division title. Second, playing a turnover-free, one-penalty game with Trevor Lawrence on the sideline for the first time in his ߣÏÈÉúAV career is not anything to sneeze at. Even if the red-zone offense (1-for-5 on Sunday) was an ugly sight, the rest of the performance belied all the things that went wrong during Jacksonville's horrific December downturn. The Jaguars averaged 2.5 turnovers and 5.5 penalties per game in four consecutive losses ahead of Sunday. Whether or not a season that started with an 8-3 record can be salvaged remains very much up in the air, but the Jaguars are alive for now, and they're facing a win-and-in Week 18 contest at Tennessee -- almost the same spot they were in one year ago.

Arguably the second-best game of Week 18: The contest between the Texans and Colts in Indianapolis, with a playoff spot -- and possibly the AFC South title -- hanging in the balance. It would have been fun to see two rookie QBs face off, but that has been off the table for months now, as Gardner Minshew just keeps chugging along for the Colts in Anthony Richardson's stead, making enough big plays to keep the offense afloat. Indianapolis' defensive numbers against the pass are fairly respectable, even if the Colts haven't exactly faced the league's toughest QB schedule of all time this season. C.J. Stroud stung them back in Week 2, and rookie Aidan O'Connell (299 yards, two TDs) carved them up a bit Sunday. Getting CB Kenny Moore (who missed the win over the Raiders) back and having a healthy RB Jonathan Taylor in Week 18 could do wonders. Taylor was in and out of the Raiders game, but he was effective when he played. Selfishly, I just want an all-hands-on-deck battle in this divisional showdown. It should be a doozy. 

Week 17's showing was not what we expected, with Tampa trailing 20-zip well into the fourth quarter against the desperate Saints. The Bucs entered the game oozing with confidence, having put together their best stretch of the season through the first four weeks of December. They then reverted back to some old, bad habits in the loss, putting themselves in a win-or-else situation in Week 18. That Sunday's opponents are the lowly Panthers provides little solace. If they had beaten the Saints, the Bucs could have clinched a playoff spot, which would have allowed them to determine how they'd want to handle Week 18, with the option of resting select players if needed. That luxury has come and gone, and Tampa Bay must clean up the mistakes it made in all three phases of the game. I considered dropping the Bucs even farther, especially as Baker Mayfield is now dealing with some , but for now, they lie just on the playoff cusp, which feels about right.

Mason Rudolph earned the Week 18 start against the Ravens with his second straight cool-handed performance, the kind of thing Pittsburgh has lacked at quarterback for much of this season. There were other factors of note in the massive win at Seattle, including a tone-setting run game and just enough impact plays on defense. The Steelers kept the Seahawks out of the end zone for the final 35-plus minutes Sunday, coming up with the big turnover they needed: 's strip-sack of Geno Smith with seven minutes left. Even if Pittsburgh can't beat the Ravens in Baltimore on Saturday, Rudolph's late-season bloom has added a fascinating wrinkle to the Steelers' QB situation long term. Perhaps it's all moot, and Kenny Pickett returns to starting in 2024. But hear me out: What if Rudolph gets Pittsburgh into the playoffs?

The Packers' first post-Aaron Rodgers season opened with , and it will take a reprise of that Sunday -- at Lambeau Field -- to get Jordan Love and Green Bay into the postseason. Chicago is a far different team than it was the last time around, arguably just as hot as the Packers down the stretch, with both teams having won five of their past seven games. Love reached the 30-TD mark in Sunday's win over the Vikings. Don't look now, but he's had a really impressive season on the whole. Week 1 hero Aaron Jones is back, too, turning in a 120-yard rushing performance against Minnesota. And assuming Jayden Reed is , he's proving to be a rookie star in the making. Matt LaFleur has never lost to the Bears, who haven't won in Green Bay since 2015. Week 18 will add another terrific chapter to this historic rivalry, with the playoffs on the line and a feisty Chicago team that would love nothing more than to spoil a Pack party.

It was nice to see the middling Saints play their best all-around game this season in a now-or-never situation, thoroughly thumping the Buccaneers in Tampa. But could they not have performed like that sooner? Because of some earlier-season losses to teams they're now going head-to-head against for playoff spots, the Saints need to beat Atlanta and receive help to get into the postseason. But the NFC South remains open, and as much of a long shot as it might be, in this season -- especially in that division -- it's safe to say we should not assume anything is going to happen as expected. One big development Sunday was Derek Carr delivering a dialed-in performance. I believe the chances of Carr being back in New Orleans next season as the Saints' starter are higher than they were a month ago. Let's see how Week 18 plays out, though, before we start forecasting what their offseason might look like.

The Bengals allowed the Chiefs to gain 373 yards of offense in Sunday's loss -- not an obscene total by any means, but the most Kansas City has had in a game since October. And examining the way those yards were compiled helps frame the Bengals' lost season. The Chiefs' six longest gains totaled 225 yards, which was more than 60 percent of their game total -- six big plays allowed. That has been Cincinnati's biggest problem all season along, perhaps underscoring what Jessie Bates III (who signed with the Falcons last offseason) meant to this defense, even if it's hard to imagine that one safety could carry that much weight. According to Next Gen Stats, the Bengals enter Week 18 ranked last in the league in rushing defensive success rate (54.9%) and second-to-last in passing defensive success (51.2%). The wrist injury that ended Joe Burrow's season in November dealt the biggest blow to the Bengals' Super Bowl chances, but the defensive breakdowns might have short-circuited this team even if Burrow had stayed healthy.

The Seahawks entered Week 17 controlling their own destiny, needing wins in their final two games to guarantee a playoff berth. Uh, yeah, about that ... Perhaps allowing 178 rush yards after contact to a Steelers team that was averaging fewer than 90 rush yards in the previous three games wasn't a winning formula. It also didn't help that Kenneth Walker III, who made some noise early in the game, was injured in the third quarter and missed most of the second half. After Walker recovered his own fumble on a direct snap midway through the third quarter, the Seahawks handed off one more time on their final 20 plays of the game. Walker's one appearance in the fourth quarter came on the strip-sack of Geno Smith, and the RB's chip left a bit to be desired. The Seahawks' surest path to the playoffs now? Beating a highly competitive Cardinals team in Week 18 and having the Bears defeat the Packers. That's not completely improbable, but it's hard to assume it'll happen.

The Bears have the perfect offseason springboard opportunity lying ahead: a chance to knock the Packers out of the playoffs in Green Bay. The season began with Jordan Love and the Packers outplaying Justin Fields and the Bears , and the potential payback couldn't be much sweeter. Stop me if you've heard this before, but most arrows are pointing upward in Chicago. On the day the Bears secured the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 ߣÏÈÉúAV Draft, Fields sent his stock soaring by beating the tar out of the Falcons. The franchise certainly has some massive decisions ahead, but chants of "We want Justin!" on Sunday let Chicago's front office know where a lot of fans stand on the quarterback situation. If Fields can play well and lead a successful Week 18 siege of Lambeau Field, those decisions might become even easier.

Transcribing the Week 18 scenarios that would allow Minnesota to back-door its way into the playoffs would use up most of my word count, so let's get down to some raw facts. The Vikings' shorthanded defense might have been the biggest culprit in Sunday's crushing loss to the Packers, but that unit has banked enough cred with the wholesale improvements (without a massive talent increase) it's made since last year. We all know that the Vikings' QB situation after Kirk Cousins' season-ending Achilles injury was the real underlying issue, leading to a weekly Press Your Luck-style game show for Kevin O'Connell to land on an able replacement. Unfortunately, KOC hit too many whammies down the stretch, and the wheel was still spinning Monday, when no starter had for the regular-season finale. If you're a Vikings fan who was in their feels watching a shirtless Cousins lead the "SKOL" chant before Sunday's game, you're probably not alone. Is there a chance he's back as QB1 in 2024? A month ago, I'm not sure what answer I'd have given, but now? Absolutely yes.

Denver resurrected itself after a 1-5 start to the season that included a 50-point drubbing -- but winning six of seven games (including five straight) apparently just delayed the inevitable. Eventually, it seems the arranged marriage between Sean Payton and Russell Wilson is likely to come to an end in some form or another, and it might not be the cleanest divorce in history. It will be interesting to see how much of a chance Jarrett Stidham gets as the starter next season. Playing a lower-salaried starting QB would have its obvious appeals, and Payton could opt to pair Stidham with a promising rookie as a way of potentially offsetting Wilson's imminent dead-money salary-cap hit, should Wilson be cut. Stidham was fine Sunday in his first start with the team, but that one game alone did little to suggest he's the no-questions-asked favorite to be QB1 in 2024. There's still a lot to sort out -- and with Payton running the show, things are seldom bland.

There's no question interim head coach Antonio Pierce has pulled the Raiders out of a midseason tailspin after the ouster of Josh McDaniels. They were 3-5 under McDaniels with a minus-61 point differential. Even taking into account Sunday's loss to the Colts, the Raiders have gone 4-4 with a plus-49 differential under Pierce. But is it enough to convince owner Mark Davis to hire Pierce for the full-time job? A Week 18 win over the rival Broncos could help Pierce's cause. But if not, we might look back at the missed opportunities against the Vikings () and Sunday's defeat, which knocked the Raiders out of the playoffs, as the difference. There are some big-name candidates who could be on the market this offseason, potentially including one particular college coach who got his ߣÏÈÉúAV coaching start with the franchise. 

On Sunday morning, ߣÏÈÉúAV Network Insiders Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero indicated Falcons head coach Arthur Smith and general manager Terry Fontenot are likely to remain in their posts in 2024 -- and then the Falcons went out and laid an egg in Chicago, with a playoff spot still up for grabs. Hope of reaching the postseason remains, although it has dimmed considerably, thanks to the Falcons' insistence on being unreliable from game to game. One week, they're handing the Panthers their second win of the season; the next, they're blasting an underrated Colts squad; then they're flopping again in the snow in Chicago. The Falcons aren't built to be a comeback team. Their largest deficit overcome this season was 12 points back in Week 2 at home. So a comeback after trailing by two TDs at halftime Sunday seemed like a pretty dodgy proposition. Whether the Falcons back their way into the playoffs or not, we will likely be able to ultimately say quarterback limitations did this team in this season. It's hard to imagine Atlanta trying to run back the same QB room next season and expecting different results.

Robert Saleh has called his defense a "championship-caliber" unit, but Thursday's performance against the Browns . Even factoring in a lost season and measuring the motivation of an eliminated team playing on a short week on the road, the Jets gave us another reason to question whether this franchise truly is one healthy Aaron Rodgers away from jumping right back into contention next season. Because I could point to a host of issues that arose after Rodgers' injury (including a five-game losing streak and poor rushing marks on both sides of the ball) that have little to do with who was playing quarterback as evidence that, well, they might not be. We know that a lot of the team will look the same, with Rodgers and Saleh expected back. But my hope is that the Jets have some honest conversations about the state of the roster this offseason. Simply running it back doesn't feel like a winning strategy in and of itself.

You can't really blame the Titans for wanting to play Will Levis in Week 17 a week after he missed a game with a high ankle sprain, even if he eventually would be knocked out of Sunday's loss, too, after a strip-sack (which the Texans ran back for a score). Ryan Tannehill had some moments in his place, hitting on his first nine passes and throwing for 168 yards in about 40 minutes of ball, but he was also sacked five times in his 25 dropbacks. That's the biggest issue for 2024: getting the blocking right. It has been a problem for a few seasons now, and it hurt the chances of Levis -- the possible QB1 next season -- to stack some important performances at season's end, with next year in mind. 

It was interesting hearing the CBS broadcast crew continue to talk about the Chargers being a talented team, albeit one that has been ravaged by injury this season. That might be true, but even taking the injuries into account, I've started to question whether the Chargers actually are among the league's more talented clubs. Especially considering the high-priced veterans who might not be back, along with a host of young players who have yet to fully realize their potential -- or, as in the case of some offensive linemen, who have taken a step backward in their development. I still think that whoever ends up running this team will be taking on a relatively attractive job, with Justin Herbert and a few other pieces in place. But when one considers their salary-cap situation (projected to be almost $35 million in the red in 2024, ) and the veterans who might be lost this offseason, the roster might not be as stacked as some assume.

The Giants sure are fascinating. There are ample reasons why this team is slated to pick in the top five of the draft this spring, and some of them have been known since their to Dallas. Other flaws have taken longer to manifest themselves, cropping up over a few wild months that included a three-game winning streak and a three-game losing streak. The encouraging part is that the Giants beat the Packers in Week 14 and had a chance to win against the playoff-bound Eagles in Week 16 and Rams on Sunday. Ultimately, too many self-inflicted mistakes prevented those feel-good upsets from taking place, but at least Brian Daboll has the Giants playing with some kind of purpose down the stretch. Bigger issues will be addressed in the weeks to come, but the effort question is a nice one to put to bed after this disappointing season.

The Cardinals have relished the spoiler role, starting with their Week 3 shocker over the Cowboys and continuing right through to Sunday's bigger stunner against the Eagles. Despite not scoring a touchdown in the first 36 minutes of the game in Philly, the Cards controlled the clock, erasing a 15-point deficit on the road with four TDs in their four second-half possessions. The offense has caught a little bit of fire lately, ringing up its second game in three outings with 200-plus rush yards and crossing the 30-point mark for the first time all season. For that to happen in such a big setting was a huge boost for first-year offensive coordinator Drew Petzing and QB Kyler Murray, who have formed a quality tandem in their initial season together.

We still have no clarity on Bill Belichick's status going forward, as he has continued to mostly deflect on that line of questioning. But how to view Bailey Zappe -- regardless of whether Belichick is back in 2024 -- seems pretty clear to me. In a league where 61 quarterbacks have started at least one game this season, it's obvious that having a true starter and a quality backup is important. And to me, Zappe falls more in line with the latter category than the former. He's energized the Patriots since his late-season promotion, giving them a better chance to win close games than Mac Jones did. But Zappe's three-interception game on Sunday revealed some of his limitations as a passer, even if he's not operating in the best environment for any quarterback to thrive. If I am running the Patriots this offseason, with a high draft pick incoming, I am employing whatever means I can to find a star talent at the position and not settling for a caretaker and some lukewarm competition. 

We've watched Sam Howell crest and fall multiple times, and another strange week was a nice little encapsulation of his strange season. Howell was benched heading into Week 17 after being outplayed by Jacoby Brissett. Then, Brissett suffered a hamstring injury later in the week, and Howell was reinserted as the starter against the 49ers. Howell actually responded to the challenge well, at least early on, looking poised and confident while completing nine of his 13 passes for 100 yards and a TD in the first half. But his propensity for turnovers re-emerged after halftime, when he threw two ill-advised picks, the first of which came in the fourth quarter when Washington was threatening to make it a one-score contest. Instead, the 49ers turned Howell's first INT into a 27-10 lead, and his second pick pretty much sealed up the Commanders' loss. Whoever is calling the shots for Washington next season likely won't accept the poor ball security we've seen from Howell, who hasn't gone more than one game without a pick all year.

This was probably the low-water point of the season, being shut out by the struggling Jaguars, who were starting a backup QB -- especially after a stretch in which the Panthers played a more competitive brand of football, beating the Falcons and nearly taking down the Packers. It was doubly painful that Sunday's loss directly led to the Bears clinching the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 ߣÏÈÉúAV Draft -- the selection that Carolina traded away to Chicago last spring in order to draft Bryce Young. Their 2022 first-rounder, Ikem Ekownu, had a difficult time trying to block the Jaguars' Josh Allen, continuing Ekwonu's rough Year 2. His future forecast (along with that of Young) remains cloudy right now. A dose of new offensive coaching blood might be able to fix some of this mess, but the O-line could use two or more new starters, and Young likely needs at least that many quality receiving options added to the till.