ߣÏÈÉúAV

Entering Week 17 of the 2024 ߣÏÈÉúAV regular season, Ali Bhanpuri digs into the Next Gen Stats playoff probability model, which provides detailed estimates of each contending team's postseason chances. During live games, playoff probabilities are dynamically updated every five minutes, incorporating the latest win probabilities from NGS for all ongoing games in every simulation. Visit ߣÏÈÉúAV.com's Playoff Picture for a live look at the latest postseason odds.

A few notes before we dig in:

1. All probabilities presented are current as of 10:30 a.m. ET on Dec. 24 unless otherwise noted below.
2. Terms defined:
   • If win: A team's chances of making the playoffs assuming a win in its upcoming game.
   • If lose: A team's chances of making the playoffs assuming a loss in its upcoming game.
   • Playoff leverage: Refers to the quantifiable impact of a single game on a team's playoff prospects. It is calculated as the difference between a team's probability of making the playoffs if it wins the upcoming game versus if it loses. This metric essentially captures the stakes of a game in terms of playoff qualification. A high playoff leverage indicates that the outcome of the game has a significant influence on the team's playoff chances, making it a critical matchup, whereas a low playoff leverage suggests that the game has a lesser impact on the team's playoff probabilities.

Jump to:

• Division races

AFC playoff picture entering Week 17

• Back-to-back convincing wins have the Chiefs one victory away from securing the AFC's No. 1 seed. When they meet Pittsburgh in the opener of Wednesday's holiday doubleheader on Netflix, it'll be both teams' third contest in 11 days. K.C. has fared far better than its counterpart during this unenviable three-game sequence, going 2-0 while the Steelers have gone 0-2. If Pittsburgh drops its third in a row while Baltimore goes on to defeat Houston in Game 2 on Christmas, the Ravens would assume the lead in the AFC North before caroling concludes on the West Coast. How these four banged-up, already-in teams manage on a short week could lead to a fair amount of movement in the top half of the conference table by Sunday night. (UPDATE: The Chiefs did, in fact, defeat the Steelers on Wednesday to lock up the conference's top seed. Pittsburgh's loss, coupled with Baltimore’s win later that day, moved the Ravens into the division lead and the AFC's three seed, and dropped the Steelers to the fifth seed. Because the Steelers beat both the Chargers and Broncos earlier this season, neither team, even with wins on Saturday, can pass Pittsburgh in the standings in Week 17.)
• Regardless of any other outcomes, if both the Chiefs and Bills win in Week 17, they will be locked in as the AFC's first and second seeds, respectively. However, a Buffalo loss on Sunday paired with a Ravens victory on Wednesday would create a juicy Week 18 scenario in which the Bills would be playing to maintain the No. 2 spot. Because Baltimore beat Buffalo back in Week 4, if the Ravens win the AFC North and finish with the same record as the Bills, the Ravens would move up in the AFC pecking order. Baltimore cannot overtake Buffalo as a wild-card team, though. So a Pittsburgh takedown of K.C. on Christmas not only gifts the Bills a chance at the one seed, but it further cements their status as the conference's two seed.
• Beside the two choice games in the midweek double feature, no other AFC matchup has more juice than Broncos-Bengals -- Game 2 of Saturday's triple-header on ߣÏÈÉúAV Network. For Denver, the stakes are basically the same as they were last week: Win and they're in.
• For Cincinnati, the stakes are similarly clear -- well, at least when it comes to the bad scenarios: Lose and they're eliminated. The fallout from a Bengals victory, however, is a bit more complicated. Although a Cincinnati win wouldn't clinch the franchise a playoff berth, it would guarantee we have at least a little AFC drama in Week 18. By extending its streak to four, Cincinnati, incredibly, would move to within one game of Denver in the wild-card race (with the H2H tie-breaker in tow). The Bengals would then need a handful of select outcomes to go their way in order to earn a berth by season's end -- which would be a miracle, when you consider their playoff probability was an improbable 2% on Dec. 3. Here's the full breakdown of how Cincy gets in:
  • Bengals: win out (vs. Broncos, at Steelers)
  • Broncos: lose out (at Bengals, vs. Chiefs)
  • Colts: lose at least one (at Giants, vs. Jaguars)
  • Dolphins: lose at least one (at Browns, at Jets)
• Cincinnati, like seemingly the rest of the AFC (save the Broncos), is rooting for Pittsburgh on Christmas. If K.C. wins and clinches the one seed in Week 17, Andy Reid could opt to rest his starters against a desperate Denver team in Week 18, which could make a Broncos loss this Saturday a moot point.
• The other wild-card contenders -- Chargers, Dolphins and Colts -- are all on the road this week against teams that are each at least nine games under .500. The Bolts can clinch a playoff berth in Week 17 by winning their cross-country clash in New England, or if both Miami (at Browns) and Indy (at Giants) lose. On the flip side, the Dolphins and Colts, like the Bengals, are eliminated this week with a loss, or if both Denver and L.A. win.

AFC teams eliminated from playoff contention:

• New York Jets (4-11)
• Cleveland Browns (3-12)
• Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12)
• Tennessee Titans (3-12)
• Las Vegas Raiders (3-12)
• New England Patriots (3-12)

NFC playoff picture entering Week 17

• Detroit enters Week 17 with its most definitive clinching scenario to date: A win at San Francisco paired with a Vikings loss to the Packers nets the Lions the NFC's top seed and the NFC North crown. What a full-circle moment it would be for Detroit to realize its season-long goal in the same stadium where it was officially knocked out of Super Bowl contention less than 12 months ago.
• Philadelphia let a golden opportunity to clinch the NFC East and remain in contention for the NFC's No. 1 seed slip away at Northwest Stadium on Sunday. There are now only two roads that lead the Eagles to the top of the conference table, with both requiring them to win their final two games. The first route is highly improbable -- though not impossible -- while the second is straight chaos. The most plausible path involves the Lions dropping their final two games and the Vikings splitting theirs, specifically losing to Green Bay and then defeating Detroit. The, uh, other route I mentioned. ... That bonkers scenario, first brought to my attention by my colleague Jack Andrade, requires the Lions and Vikings to both lose this week and then tie in Week 18 so that both finish 13-3-1 while the Eagles land at 14-3.
• As much as the Vikings might be tempted to think about what a win over the Lions two weeks from now could mean for their Super Bowl chances, Minnesota can ill afford to overlook its opponent this weekend. A loss to the Packers on Sunday combined with a Lions win would not only cost the Vikings a shot at a playoff bye and the division title -- but possibly their hold on the fifth seed. Another L in Week 18 (to Detroit) packaged with one more Packers win (versus Chicago) would result in Green Bay sliding into No. 5 and Minnesota slipping to No. 6.
• Following their loss to Dallas on Sunday night, the Bucs are now once again on the bubble looking up at Atlanta (and its H2H tie-breaker) in the conference and NFC South standings. The Bucs' best shot at regaining their spot in the seven-team field will occur this Sunday night, when their wish list will include a Falcons loss at Washington. However, an Atlanta win wouldn't be the lump of coal it initially appears to be; though certainly not ideal, it would still prevent Washington from clinching the final wild-card slot in Week 17. In the event the Falcons take the division and both Tampa and Washington finish the season at 10-7, the H2H tie-breaker the Bucs earned in Week 1 would come into effect, sending Tampa into the tournament and Washington home for the winter. It's for this reason that Washington can clinch this week with a victory or a Bucs loss.
• The Bucs (53%), Falcons (50%) and Rams (42%) have the three highest leverages in the league this week, with L.A. the only team among that group whose playoff probability in the event of a loss still projects to be above 50 percent.
• Kudos to the Cowboys for becoming the first eliminated team to kick a contender out of the playoff picture this year (at least temporarily). You can't spell Super Bowl LIX without "spoiler."

NFC teams eliminated from playoff contention:

• Arizona Cardinals (7-8)
• San Francisco 49ers (6-9)
• Dallas Cowboys (7-8)
• New Orleans Saints (5-10)
• Chicago Bears (4-11)
• Carolina Panthers (4-11)
• New York Giants (2-13)

Back to top

Who's most likely to win each division?

(Teams that have been mathematically eliminated from their divisional races are not included below.)

• As expected, this race has taken yet another turn. The Ravens once again are the favorites to capture the North almost entirely due to the disparity in these teams' remaining opponents. Although it'd be silly to expect the Texans or the Browns (regardless of Cleveland's record) to roll over against the Ravens, it's obvious that neither team has nearly as much still at stake as Kansas City (the No. 1 seed) or Cincinnati (a possible playoff berth). The Steelers clearly have their work cut out for them. That said, they enter the week in control of the race: Beat the Chiefs and Bengals, and the Ravens become irrelevant in the North. I think that's a message that will resonate with Mike Tomlin's group. (UPDATE: Looks like the model was on to something when it spit out the Ravens' strong division win probability at the start of the week. Following the fallout from the Christmas Day doubleheader, the Ravens are now first in the North while the Steelers have dropped to the conference's fifth seed.)

• The Commanders' win over the Eagles on Sunday, while significant for the new culture and identity Dan Quinn is establishing in Washington, didn't improve their division win probability by even one point. That's because Philly can still lock up the East with only one win or Commanders loss over the final two weeks. The only wrinkle in what is the least competitive division race remaining is Jalen Hurts' upcoming availability. If the two-time Pro Bowler were to miss time due to the concussion he suffered in Sunday's game, his absence could give the Commanders the opportunity to catch up ... though the Eagles have a pretty decent track record with QB2s being thrust into action during a playoff push.

• We're now only one week away from the NFC North possibly being decided by Week 18's head-to-head showdown in Detroit. A heavyweight matchup months in the making, it'd be a damn shame if the division race concluded this weekend (via a Lions win paired with a Vikings loss) instead of next. Despite these two teams sharing 13-2 marks, shorthanded Detroit maintains a significantly higher division win probability than Minnesota for a couple reasons, including:
  • The Lions can lose in Week 17 and still secure the division crown with a win next weekend. The Vikings, on the other hand, can only lose in Week 17 and remain in contention if Detroit also loses.
  • The Lions play at San Francisco before hosting Minnesota in the regular-season finale; the Vikes, meanwhile, take on a Packers team that's won five of its last six. The Niners are by no means a gimme, but they are a shell of the team they were when they last faced the Lions.

• The Falcons' move to Michael Penix Jr. paid off on Sunday, with the rookie looking comfortable and confident in leading Atlanta to one of Week 16's most-lopsided results. He'll face a much stiffer test in Start No. 2, taking on a 10-win Commanders team that's itching to clinch a playoff berth. Atlanta's imprint on the playoff picture dimmed during its four-game losing streak, but it never entirely faded due to its season sweep of Tampa. Now, after back-to-back wins and a Bucs loss, the Falcons are back in the more-likely-than-not camp to capture the division title.
• Just a disastrous outcome for the Bucs in Dallas. In losing its one-game advantage in the NFC South race, Tampa now faces the very real possibility of becoming the first 10-win team not to qualify for the postseason since the league expanded to a 17-game regular season in 2021.
• The Carolina Panthers have the opportunity to be the ultimate chaos agent over the final two weeks. A team once viewed as a punchline and top contender for the 2025 draft's No. 1 overall pick, Carolina has had several impressive performances down the stretch (the Dallas game aside) and just eliminated the Cardinals from playoff contention in Week 16. If the Commanders can't take down the Dirty Birds on Sunday night, Tampa's last remaining hope of clinching the South will rest in the Panthers' ... paws. (I went for it. Zero regrets.)

• What a wild week for the NFC West, and what a tremendous Sunday for the Rams. L.A. scored 13 unanswered fourth-quarter points to avoid an upset at the Meadowlands, improve to 9-6 overall and eliminate the 49ers from division contention. Shortly thereafter, less than 250 miles south of New Jersey, the seventh-seeded Commanders scored in the final seconds to capture their 10th win, and, in the process, eliminate the 49ers from wild-card contention. Not too long after that, another 450ish miles down the Eastern seaboard, Carolina held off the Cardinals in overtime to dash Arizona's postseason dreams. Two NFC West teams knocked out before the Seahawks, back on the West Coast, had even run their first play from scrimmage. By the time the 'Hawks ran their last play, their once-promising division probability plummeted to less than 20 percent. ...
• ... But Seattle isn't out of it yet. Here's what we know: If the Seahawks lose to the Bears on Thursday, the Rams can lock up the West by defeating Arizona on Sunday. However, even if the 'Hawks hold up in Chicago, a Rams win against the Cardinals could still result in L.A. clinching the division by Sunday night. That's because if both teams win this week, and then the Seahawks beat the Rams in Week 18, it would create a tie atop the West standings that likely would not break Seattle's way. In that scenario, both teams would finish with identical records overall (10-7), head-to-head (1-1), in the division (4-2), against common opponents (7-5) and within the conference (6-6), bringing the fifth tie-breaker -- strength of victory -- into play, where the Rams would hold a dominant advantage. Seattle would need at least six specific outcomes in Week 17 -- including the Bills losing to the Jets -- and more than seven in Week 18 to overtake the Rams in SOV by season's end.
• If you don't care about all the minutiae and want Seattle's needs distilled into simpler terms, here you go: The Seahawks' hope of winning the West now reside in the Cardinals -- a team they single-handedly dislodged from the division lead within the past month -- doing them a solid at SoFi this Sunday. An L.A. loss sets up a Week 18 finale with the division at stake.

ALREADY CLINCHED

Back to top

and contributed to this story.