We're heading full speed into Week 3. This is the week that we'd like to believe we have most things figured out. Spoiler alert: We don't. But what we do have is a larger sample size of data to help us make more informed decisions. Of course, we'll have even more data after this week. And the week after that. And so on.聽聽
Yet despite our best efforts at learning, we'll never get it totally right. Hopefully, we just are right more than we're wrong. A journey of a thousand sleepers begins with one column. Or something like that. I'm rambling. Here are some names.
Entering the season, Carr was considered a fringe QB1. Through the first two weeks, he鈥檚 lived up to those expectations with a QB22 finish in Week 1 and rebounding with a QB10 outing in Week 2. The advanced metrics tell a similar story. Per Football Outsiders, Carr ranks 18th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) and 18th in defense-adjusted value over average. It鈥檚 just a fancy way of saying he鈥檚 been ordinary to this point in the season. Something you already know if you鈥檝e been starting him -- or just watching the Raiders.
If there鈥檚 a week for Carr and the Raiders passing game to turn up, it鈥檚 this week against the Tennessee Titans. Despite a decent pass rush, Tennesee鈥檚 corners have been average at best. Considering what Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs did to them on Monday night, the prospect of facing a Carr/Davante Adams stack in Week 3 could cause a lot of sleepless nights in the Music City.
I would say that we鈥檝e seen the highs and lows of Smith this season. More accurately, we鈥檝e seen the mids (Week 1) and lows (Week 2) of the journeyman quarterback. It鈥檚 a big part of the reason DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett had depressed ADPs during fantasy draft season. While I鈥檇 never try to sell you on Geno as a season-long option, there are reasons to think he could be a Superflex starter in Week 3.
The Falcons might be interesting to watch offensively but things aren鈥檛 so enthralling on the defensive side. Atlanta is struggling to get consistent pressure on quarterbacks through the first two weeks. They make up for it with a secondary giving up an ungood 7.8 yards per pass attempt. The Seahawks' pass protection hasn鈥檛 been stellar in the early going, but they've also faced a couple of tough defenses in Denver and San Francisco. This week鈥檚 matchup doesn鈥檛 figure to be as rigorous. Oh, and for what it's worth, Pete Carroll says he plans to #LetGenoCook -- unleashing his quarterback to throw downfield a little more in Week 3. This could backfire horribly. But I appreciate the spirit.
It's strange to think that just three weeks into the season, we鈥檇 be talking about a third-round pick having sleeper potential. Welcome to the weird and wonderful world of the Rams backfield. Darrell Henderson dominated the opportunities in Week 1. Akers closed the snap gap significantly in Week 2 -- even if Henderson looked better according to the eye test.
There鈥檚 never really any accounting for what Sean McVay is going to do with this backfield, but all of the preseason chatter suggested the Rams want Akers to be the lead back. If there鈥檚 ever a week to get him on track, it鈥檚 against a Cardinals defense that is allowing more than four yards per carry this season. Considering how effective the Chiefs were in Week 1, that number might have been even worse had Kansas City given Clyde Edwards-Helaire more than seven carries. Without a doubt, Henderson will stay in the mix this week, but this could be the Akers breakout.
Another week of playing Rhamondre Roulette. This week, the ball is bouncing in a positive direction for the rollercoaster rusher. Ty Montgomery鈥檚 injury in Week 1 was supposed to mean better things for Stevenson in Week 2, but those good vibes never manifested. However, there have been a lot of hopeful signs around Stevenson. He far and away out-snapped Damien Harris in Week 2, absorbing all of the plays left vacant by Montgomery. Stevenson also ran significantly more routes in Week 2. The next step is getting the targets.
That could happen in Week 3. The Ravens have been hit hard by pass-catching running backs in the first couple of weeks. Baltimore has given up 19 receptions for 129 yards to the position in its first two games -- including a combined 13 catches for 78 yards by Michael Carter and Breece Hall in the season opener. With the Ravens getting to the quarterback at a high rate (27 QB pressures so far), there could be plenty of chances for Mac Jones to get the ball out quickly to his running back. StevenSZN could finally be here.
While we鈥檙e talking about the Patriots passing game, let鈥檚 turn our attention to the wide receivers. You鈥檇 be hard-pressed to find any fantasy managers who were eager to pick up parts of the New England receiving room this offseason. For good reason. It鈥檚 filled with a collection of pieces that have so far been less than the sum of its parts. Its leader is Meyers, a player who was so touchdown-challenged that you might as well have been playing 鈥淵ub Nub鈥 underneath the team celebration when he finally scored.
So why am I touting Meyers this week? Well, if there鈥檚 a Pats receiver you want, he鈥檚 the one. He鈥檚 the leader in routes run, targets and air yards -- and it鈥檚 not close in the latter two categories. Meanwhile, Baltimore鈥檚 secondary has had its issues in the first two weeks. Missed assignments and big plays were the headlines for the Ravens in the Week 2 loss to Miami, but they were having a tough time handling the Dolphins receivers even before that big fourth quarter. In Week 1, the Jets trio of Corey Davis, Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore snagged 15 passes for 178 yards on 27 targets. I鈥檓 not sold on the Patriots offense overall yet. You鈥檒l have to pick your spots when to use them, but this could be one of them.
Last week, someone asked me if they should start Rashaad Penny or Dortch. I snorted, scoffed and immediately picked the Seahawks running back. Sure, Dortch had posted a double-digit fantasy total in Week 1. But that had to be a fluke, right? Certainly not something to be repeated again. This is my mea culpa. I was wrong.
In two weeks, Dortch has been a very real part of Arizona鈥檚 passing game. He leads the team in receptions and receiving yards. More importantly, he鈥檚 second only to Marquise Brown in routes run, while ranking third in overall target share. He is what we hoped Rondale Moore would be. (Side note: this makes me feel justified about my Moore hype in the preseason.) This week is a potentially high-scoring matchup with the Rams. And with plenty of attention likely to be paid to the two receivers on the outside as well as Zach Ertz, Dortch could find more room to roam in the middle of the field.
While we all lament the lack of Kyle Pitts in our fantasy lives, let鈥檚 celebrate one of the guys who has shown up. Through two weeks, Thomas is the TE10 with a 13 percent target share on a team that finds itself with a plethora of weapons in the passing game. While it would be nice to see him playing a few more snaps (67 percent) or running a few more routes (58 percent participation), it鈥檚 still reassuring that a player returning from an ACL tear is as much a part of the offense as Thomas is.
This week, he鈥檒l line up against an Eagles defense that has been very good to start year but still can鈥檛 seem to overcome its tight end bugaboo. Last season, the Birds allowed the most receiving touchdowns to tight ends. So far this season, Philly is allowing the seventh-most points per game to the position and allowed me to get off my first tweet of the season. Thank you, Eagles. Anyway, if you鈥檙e looking for a streamer, Thomas could be your guy.
I know I鈥檓 going to hate myself for this later, but here we go. Engram might be becoming a thing down in Jacksonville. He鈥檚 on the field for more than 70 percent of the snaps and seeing a respectable 17.6 percent target share. For context, Engram has a larger snap share than Darren Waller and a larger target share than Pitts. In this offense, it feels a sustainable. I repeat, Engram might be becoming a thing down in Jacksonville. I鈥檓 dizzy. I think I need to lie down.
This week鈥檚 matchup against the Chargers could be a higher-scoring affair than it would initially appear. The Bolts haven鈥檛 been awful against tight ends this year. But they haven鈥檛 been great, either. Neither Waller nor Travis Kelce found the end zone against Los Angeles this season, but both players also scored in double figures and had top 15 weekly finishes. If Engram can do the same this week, we might need to admit this could FINALLY be the year.
The further away we get from 2019, the more it looks like Hooper鈥檚 breakout year in Atlanta was more of the outlier. But we persist. The Titans offense hasn鈥檛 given us much reason to be excited in the first two weeks. Heck, even Derrick Henry has only rushed for two first downs this year. The passing offense has been even more lackluster.
The Raiders might not exactly be the cure for what ails Tennessee, but they could at least serve as an aspirin for any offensive pains. Las Vegas ranks 28th in pass defense and has been beaten up by Gerald Everett and Ertz in the first two weeks. That, combined with Hooper having one of just three Titans end zone targets, gives him streaming potential.
This isn鈥檛 so much about the Chiefs defense being good as it is about the Colts offense being questionable. Last week鈥檚 showing against the Jaguars was miserable. Having Michael Pittman back in action should help somewhat, but this outfit hasn鈥檛 been the well-oiled machine we were anticipating.
The previously stout offensive line has allowed seven sacks in the first two games. Meanwhile, Matt Ryan has tossed four picks in his first two games with Indy. Until things start to turn around, we might be able to pick on Indianapolis if you鈥檙e of a mind to stream defenses.
Marcas Grant is a fantasy analyst for 撸先生AV.com and a man who regrets having Sloppy Joe's. Send him your home improvement aspirations or fantasy football questions on Twitter or TikTok at .