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Projected draft position: Round 2 (RB7)

There were two running backs who averaged more than 18 fantasy points per game in 2023: Christian McCaffrey (24.5) and Williams (21.3). McCaffrey is being selected first overall in most fantasy drafts this season, and rightfully so, but Williams is falling to the middle of the second round. Make this make sense! Sure, injuries have been an issue for Williams and Rams rookie Blake Corum might steal some of his snaps, but head coach Sean McVay has made it clear Williams is still RB1. No player saw a heavier workload per game than Williams in 2023 -- he led the ߣ����AV with 21.7 touches per game. Even if Williams sees a slight decline in touches, he will still be one of the league’s most utilized backs. Plus, Corum taking some of the work off his plate gives Williams a better chance to stay healthy and help you win your fantasy matchups all season long. 

Projected draft position: Round 6 (RB19)

If I told you that you could grab a running back in the sixth round who has averaged over 16 fantasy points per game over the last three seasons, would you pass up the opportunity? Conner might not be flashy, but he was RB13 in average fantasy points per game in 2023, RB10 in 2022 and RB9 in 2021. With Kyler Murray back under center, Conner finished the 2023 on fire, scoring 23.9 points per game from Week 13 through Week 18 (most among RBs during span). Conner might miss some time in 2024 with an injury -- he’s never played a full season -- and the Cardinals did spend a third-round draft pick on a new backup at running back (Trey Benson). Still, Conner’s history of production and his affordable cost make him one of the best values in fantasy football. 

Projected draft position: Round 8 (RB27)

The ߣ����AV’s reigning rushing touchdown leader and RB5 in fantasy last season is now falling all the way to RB27 in drafts. I understand the concerns. Mostert is 32 years old, he splits a backfield with speedster De’Von Achane and touchdown regression is almost guaranteed, but I still believe he’s being disrespected. Mostert will be heavily involved in the fast-paced Dolphins offense and should return to his role as the team’s goal-line back -- he led all running backs in goal-line carries (inside opponents’ 3-yard line) last season with 16, per Next Gen Stats. The combination of Mike McDaniel’s system and Mostert’s efficiency should allow him to put up plenty of fantasy points even with a moderate workload.

Projected draft position: Round 8 (RB26)

The Bengals shook up their backfield this offseason -- Joe Mixon is out and Moss is in. As Moss’ No. 1 stan, I am thrilled he finally has a chance to take over as the clear RB1 in a good offense. Last season with the Colts, Moss proved he could be an excellent fantasy producer when he averaged over 20 points per game through the first six weeks, prior to Jonathan Taylor getting healthy and returning to the role of feature back. Heading into 2024, Moss will compete for snaps with Chase Brown. Brown certainly has more burst to break off big runs, but he’s not as reliable in short-yardage situations and pass protection. At the very least, Moss should be the goal-line back, which has been a very lucrative role in the Bengals offense. No running back has had more carries inside the opponents’ 3-yard line over the last three seasons than Mixon (39), Moss’ RB1 predecessor in Cincinnati. Moss has a very realistic path to double-digit rushing touchdowns in 2024. 

Projected draft position: Round 2 (RB9)

Normally, I would be worried about drafting a 30-year-old RB in the second round of fantasy drafts, but when it comes to Henry, I see a unicorn. In a struggling Titans offense, with everything put on his shoulders, Henry still finished as the fantasy RB8 in 2023. Now he joins an elite Ravens offense, which tallied 26 rushing touchdowns last season (fourth most in the league) ... and his draft cost falls to RB9. Talk about a value. Henry leads the ߣ����AV in rushing touchdowns since 2018. In fact, he has 27 more rushing touchdowns than any other player during that span. Henry has scored 10-plus rushing touchdowns in six straight seasons, the third-longest such streak in ߣ����AV history. I know there are skeptics about whether his second act in Baltimore will live up to the high bar he set in Act 1 with the Titans, but count me among the believers.

Projected draft position: Round 6 (RB21)

A large workload is up for grabs in Las Vegas with Josh Jacobs departing in free agency, and it seems the Raiders feel comfortable giving White the keys to the backfield. Late last season, when Jacobs was out with an injury, White took over the starting role and averaged more than 100 scrimmage yards per game from Week 15 to Week 18. Despite scoring only one touchdown during the span, White finished as a top-16 fantasy RB in three of the four weeks. The Raiders offense might not offer White high touchdown upside this year, but with former Viking Alexander Mattison as his top competition for carries, White should see enough volume to make him a great value at the RB21 price. 

Projected draft position: Round 8 (RB28)

A new era is starting in Tennessee. The Titans have moved on from longtime franchise staple Derrick Henry, inking Pollard to a three-year contract in free agency. After seeing his yards-per-carry mark and touchdown totals drop in 2023, Pollard is now getting the “post-hype” treatment in fantasy drafts. Sure, last season might have been a disappointment for Pollard’s fantasy managers given his high draft cost. He still finished as the fantasy RB14 in 2023, though. He might lose some touches to Tyjae Spears this year, but Pollard thrived in 2022 when he finished as the fantasy RB8 while splitting the workload with Ezekiel Elliott in Dallas. He won’t be the most exciting pick to make, but Pollard is one of just four running backs who have posted 1,300-plus scrimmage yards in each of the last two seasons, joining Christian McCaffrey, Travis Etienne and Henry. Pollard shouldn’t be falling so far in drafts. 

Projected draft position: Rounds 6-7 (RB24)

The Steelers offense was atrocious for most of the 2023 season, but when the team finally turned to Mason Rudolph and saw some decent QB play, Harris performed at a much higher level. He averaged 20.8 fantasy points per game from Week 16 to Week 18 with Rudolph starting, and Harris finished as a top-seven fantasy RB in two of those three weeks. Pittsburgh not only upgraded the QB position this offseason, but it also used resources to improve the offensive line and hired Arthur Smith to be the new offensive coordinator. No running back has more touches (978) than Harris since he entered the league in 2021, while Smith has a track record as one of the heaviest run-play callers in the league. The Falcons ranked top three in the ߣ����AV in both rush attempts and rushing yards from 2022 to 2023 under Smith, and the Titans ranked second in both rushing attempts and rushing yards from 2019 to 2020 when Smith was their offensive coordinator. The threat of Jaylen Warren taking an even bigger bite out of Harris’ snaps still exists, but as the RB24, Harris is well worth the risk.

Projected draft position: Rounds 10-11 (RB40)

Ford stepped up when tasked with replacing Nick Chubb last season after Chubb suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 2. From Week 2 to Week 18, Ford scored the 14th-most fantasy points among RBs. Chubb was placed on the physically-unable-to-perform list to begin training camp and the team has not offered a clear timetable on when he’ll return. The opportunity could be there for Ford to handle a significant workload, at least early on, as he will no longer have to compete for snaps with Kareem Hunt, who led the team with nine rushing touchdowns in 2023 and remains a free agent. Ford proved to be a reliable pass-catching back last season and could hold onto that role even when Chubb returns. Ford likely doesn’t have top-12 RB upside, but he can be a very solid RB2/RB3 in fantasy leagues and has great value at his current price. 

Projected draft position: Round 11 or later (RB41)

Due to some terrible injury luck, Dobbins has played just nine games over the last three seasons. The probability of any running back performing at a high level after going through what Dobbins has experienced -- tearing both his ACL (2021) and Achilles (2023) -- doesn’t seem very high. However, Dobbins says he feels 100 percent healthy and even “faster” than he was before. I typically would take an offseason statement like that from a player with a grain of salt, but the situation in the Chargers’ backfield makes him an interesting player to take a chance on late in drafts. Not only are the Bolts expected to be a run-heavy offense this season under new head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman, but Dobbins’ main competition to be the lead back is Gus Edwards, who backed up Dobbins with the Ravens in the rare instances when both were healthy at the same time over the last couple seasons. When Dobbins has been able to play, he's been a solid fantasy producer. In 13 career games with 10-plus carries, Dobbins has averaged 14.6 fantasy points per contest. It’s worth taking a late flier on Dobbins instead of fighting for him on the waiver wire if he ends up emerging as the Chargers’ RB1.