And so, we've made it to the end. Championship Week. The reason we play fantasy football. The reason you spent so much time this summer studying draft guides and listening to the 撸先生AV Fantasy Football Show (and maybe some other podcasts). All that stands between you and a fantasy title is assembling the best possible lineup.
Here's the rub: This isn't exactly the week to take chances. We're not going to blindly "start our studs," but it's not wise to dive too deep, either. That's why this edition of the Sleepers column might have a few names that aren't traditional sleepers. Maybe they're guys who have been fringe starters most of the year. Maybe they're guys who you had been rolling with but have been slumping for a bit.
Whatever the reason, we're saddling up for one last ride in the 2023 fantasy season. This one's for all the marbles. Thanks for hanging out with me this year. Congratulations on getting this far. Best of luck this weekend. So, for the last time, here are some names ...
Quarterbacks
We鈥檝e spent most of the year picking on the Eagles鈥 secondary. Why stop now? Murray鈥檚 passing numbers haven鈥檛 been great since his return in Week 10. That shouldn鈥檛 be surprising for a player who missed all of training camp and the first two months of the regular season. But he has started to look more like himself over the past couple of games. Last week, he threw multiple touchdown passes for the first time this year.
On the one hand, you could claim that Philly鈥檚 defense has tightened up against the pass. On the other hand, you could say that they鈥檝e faced Drew Lock and the duo of Tommy DeVito and Tyrod Taylor over the past two weeks (you鈥檇 be correct). The Eagles allowed multiple scoring strikes in each of their previous six games -- and more than 300 passing yards in four of them. For those who have streamed through the playoffs, Kyler could be your Week 17 QB1 hero.
I don鈥檛 want you to get the wrong idea. Carr isn鈥檛 exactly playing well, despite what his recent stats might show. In Week 16 against the Rams, he did most of his work with New Orleans trailing by multiple scores. The previous week, Carr threw three touchdowns against a bad Giants defense. And yet, in fantasy football, they don鈥檛 talk about how 鈥 they talk about how many. And in the past two weeks, Carr has been a top-five fantasy quarterback with consecutive 20-point performances.
He could make it three straight weeks against Tampa Bay in Week 17. The Bucs are allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this year. And that number has been softened by a series of underwhelming passing games over the past month. The Saints are far from the league鈥檚 most potent air attack, but Carr and crew have shown enough moxie lately to put up good numbers against this defense. He鈥檚 a high-end QB2 in Week 17.
Running backs
Over the last two weeks, the Eagles have given Swift the gift of volume. And, lo, hath he prospered! He rushed for 166 yards and a touchdown in those two contests. Yes, he鈥檒l always be a victim of Jalen Hurts鈥 Tush-Push success, but it鈥檚 good to see that Philadelphia has remembered Swift can be a playmaker and are using him as such.
He should be a playmaker again this week against Arizona. The Cardinals have the 撸先生AV鈥檚 worst run defense. No group has faced more rushing attempts. No group has allowed more rushing yards. Just four teams have allowed more rushing touchdowns. If Nick Sirianni鈥檚 offense is truly serious about running the football (or at least interested in ), Swift should again be loaded up with touches. He鈥檚 a solid RB2 for your championship lineups.
Sometimes, fantasy production comes from unexpected sources. Over the summer, there was little excitement in fake football circles about Miles Sanders in the Panthers offense. That disinterest proved to be well-founded. However, there was even less enthusiasm for Hubbard. That鈥檚 turned out to be a mistake. Hubbard fully took over the backfield in Week 13 and has done well with the opportunity. He鈥檚 had more than 90 scrimmage yards in four of his last five games and scored double-digit points in all five contests.
This week, he takes on a Jaguars run defense that has been boom-or-bust. Will they be the defense that held the Bucs and Browns to fewer than 90 rushing yards? Or will they be the group that was torched by the Ravens, Bengals and 49ers? Carolina鈥檚 rushing ceiling isn鈥檛 as high as those three teams. But Hubbard, with steady touches, could post another solid outing against a stop unit giving up four yards per carry. The Panthers runner is a low-end RB2 this week.
Two running backs from the same game? What year is this? Yep, this could be one of those types of games. The Jaguars鈥 pass attack has struggled recently. The Panthers鈥 has been awful all year. Though Chuba Hubbard has exceeded expectations, Etienne has been disappointing over the second half of the season.
This could be a get-right game for Etienne. The Panthers鈥 run defense has consistently been one of the most RB-friendly units in the league. No team has allowed more rushing scores to backs than Carolina. Not to mention Jacksonville鈥檚 quarterback situation is again in flux. (Will Trevor Lawrence be healthy enough to go? Or will it be C.J. Beathard?) All of that suggests that Etienne could see more work than usual. He has RB2 vibes in Week 17.
Wide receivers
Robinson has become a legitimate threat in the red-hot Rams offense. He took over snaps after Tutu Atwell went down with an injury. He鈥檚 held onto the gig even after Atwell has returned. Along the way, Robinson has scored a touchdown in four straight games. It might feel like we鈥檙e chasing the TDs here, but we鈥檙e actually chasing the usage. Since Week 13, Robinson has run a route on 87 percent of L.A.鈥檚 pass plays and has earned an 18 percent target share.
And it鈥檚 not just about Robinson. It鈥檚 also about the Giants. Big Blue has been a soft target for fantasy wideouts all season. They鈥檙e allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the position. They鈥檙e also surrendering a gaudy 13.2 yards per reception to receivers lined up out wide. The bulk of the targets should go to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, but Robinson could see enough volume to be a WR3 this week.
Deep sleeper ...
Arizona鈥檚 passing game hasn鈥檛 truly achieved liftoff since Kyler Murray rejoined the team. It hasn鈥檛 helped that Marquise Brown has been dealing with injuries and missed last week鈥檚 contest. But if there鈥檚 a chance for the Redbirds to take flight, it鈥檚 against the Eagles. Which is a weird thing to say about a team that鈥檚 11-4 and in the hunt for the top seed in the NFC. But here we are.
Alas, the Eagles have given up a ton of big plays in the passing game. Per Next Gen Stats, Philly has given up 86 explosive pass plays (that鈥檚 16 or more yards), fifth-most in the 撸先生AV. That falls in line with Moore鈥檚 recent usage. He鈥檚 turned into Arizona鈥檚 deep threat, with a 17-yard average depth of target since Week 11. With Murray rounding into form and looking more comfortable, Moore offers a risk-reward proposition as a deep-league flex option.
Tight ends
Try as I might, I can鈥檛 fully move on from Everett. He鈥檚 just outside the top 20 fantasy tight ends. He doesn鈥檛 have 50 receiving yards in a game this season and he has only one touchdown since Week 7. But he also does just enough often enough to make you believe in him. Case in point, his 11-point game in Week 16 that was good for a top-12 finish.
So, with a matchup with the Broncos up next, I am once again asking for you to consider Everett. Denver continues to be a rest haven for fantasy tight ends. Without Hunter Henry last week, the Patriots duo of Mike Gesicki and Pharoah Brown teamed up for four catches, 40 yards and a touchdown. No, it doesn鈥檛 seem like much. But it鈥檚 Mike Gesicki and Pharoah Brown. As long as Stone Smartt or Donald Parham don鈥檛 horn in on his action, Everett has low-end TE1 vibes in Championship Week.
Did you really think I was going to say Kyle Pitts? Lol, no! You should know better than that by now. It was nice that Pitts caught a touchdown last week, but he was out-targeted by Smith who played two fewer snaps. Facts don鈥檛 care about our feelings (so I鈥檝e heard) and the fact is that Jonnu Smith has not fallen out of favor in the Falcons offense.
That could work to his advantage this week against the Bears. Chicago is yielding the third-most receptions and third-most points per game to tight ends. Starting Smith is a roll of the dice, with better odds in daily fantasy lineups. Nonetheless, he could see his way into high-end TE2 status in Week 17.
Defenses
The best way to get fantasy points from your defense is via sacks and turnovers. The Rams haven鈥檛 been great at either. Los Angeles ranks 30th in takeaways. Only the Titans and Panthers have fewer. The Rams also sit 27th in sacks. Only four teams have fewer quarterback takedowns. Accordingly, Los Angeles has the 29th-best fantasy defense. So, why would I have them on this list?
Because the Giants offensive line has cosplayed as a turnstile this season. New York has far and away ceded the most sacks in the league. Giants quarterbacks have been sacked a total of 77 times -- 16 more than the next-closest team. Even if the Rams don鈥檛 force any turnovers, they should be able to get to Tyrod Taylor (the starter once again) enough times to put up a decent fantasy number.
It鈥檚 been a tough rookie year for Bryce Young. The Panthers鈥 offensive struggles aren鈥檛 totally his fault. But it鈥檚 been ungood regardless. Young has just 11 touchdown passes this season, compared with nine picks. He鈥檚 thrown for multiple scores just twice all year and has lost five fumbles. Chuba Hubbard and the run game have been positive in recent weeks, but that doesn鈥檛 dramatically improve what is one of the least productive offenses in the league.
Meanwhile, Jacksonville鈥檚 current four-game losing streak can鈥檛 be placed fully on the shoulders of the defense. In that span, the Jaguars have notched eight sacks with five total takeaways. But they鈥檝e been hurt by an offense (their own) that鈥檚 given the ball away 10 times in the past three weeks. If the Jags offense can maintain possession and give its defense a rest, their stop unit has streaming potential against a punchless offensive opponent.
The Bills have been in playoff mode for a few weeks now. Every win is crucial as they try to sneak into the playoffs. Last week鈥檚 victory over the Chargers might have been sloppy, but it was still important. The same can be said for this week鈥檚 contest against the Patriots. Things aren鈥檛 so dire on New England鈥檚 side. They鈥檝e been eliminated for a couple of weeks now. Credit Bill Belichick鈥檚 squad for continuing to fight -- just ask the Denver Broncos -- but they鈥檙e still a haphazard offensive outfit.
That鈥檚 where the Bills can make hay. Bailey Zappe has looked better recently than Mac Jones ever did, but he鈥檚 still prone to poor decisions and bad turnovers. Combine that with Buffalo鈥檚 pass rush in a must-win situation, and the Bills have life as a streaming defense in Championship Week.
Marcas Grant is a fantasy analyst for 撸先生AV.com and a man who doesn't have enough room in his fridge for all the holiday leftovers. Send him your tales of overindulgence or fantasy football questions on X @MarcasG or TikTok at marcasgrant.