- WHERE: Ford Field (Detroit)
- WHEN: 8 p.m. ET | Fox, Fox Deportes, NFL+
For the first time this millennium, the Detroit Lions and Washington Commanders are relevant simultaneously.
The last time the two clubs faced off in the postseason came in 1999 when Washington blasted Detroit in the Wild Card Round. Since then, the clubs haven't been to the playoffs in the same season.
Saturday, two ardent, downtrodden fan bases will see their clubs battle for the right to play in the NFC Championship Game.
The Lions' revival came down the stretch in 2022, leading to an NFC title game berth in 2023. The 2024 season for Dan Campbell's crew has been about not just returning to the conference showdown, proving last year was no fluke, but taking that next step. It's been Super Bowl or bust in Detroit.
With the ߣÏÈÉúAV's top offense and a banged-up but scrappy defense, the Lions earned the No. 1 seed for the first time in franchise history. It marked the second time they've had a bye in the Wild Card Round. The first time came in 1991 as the No. 2 seed. Commanders fans might take solace that the last season in which Detroit had a bye, Washington blew it out in the NFC Championship Game -- the last time the Commanders were in the NFC title tilt.
Washington's revitalization came swiftly. After back-to-back seasons in the NFC East cellar, hiring Dan Quinn and drafting quarterback Jayden Daniels this past offseason provided immediate dividends. The Cardiac Commanders were kings of the crucible, generating seven last-minute wins in 2024, including their last five victories coming down to a last-minute play.
Quinn's steady hand and Daniels' calming presence as a rookie have Washington believing it can stand with anyone, even a 15-win club.
If someone told you two years ago these clubs would meet for a right to go to the NFC Championship Game, you would have laughed yourself into hysteria. For one of these fanbases, the hysteria will continue.
Here are three things to watch for when the Commanders visit the Lions in Saturday's Divisional Round matchup:
1) The Jayden Daniels show. The Commanders' new coaching staff and front office deserve flowers for turning around the franchise. However, even they'd admit they wouldn't be in the Divisional Round if not for the play of a rookie sensation under center.
Daniels plays with a poise beyond his years. He's calm in the pocket, is a patient surveyor, and knows when to use his legs without cannibalizing his throwing ability.
Listening to the Detroit coaching staff glow about its opponent underscores the respect Daniels has garnered in just a single season.
"He does not play the position like a rookie quarterback," head coach Dan Campbell said this week.
"His demeanor and how calm he is, it pops out," added defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, "and another thing that pops out is he's having fun playing this game."
In ending a 19-year string of playoff futility, Daniels became the first rookie QB to win a playoff game for Washington since Hall of Fame quarterback Sammy Baugh won the ߣÏÈÉúAV Championship as a rookie in 1937 (Baugh was listed as a starting tailback in the Championship Game, but there was no listed QB1 and he led the team with 335 passing yards and three TDs).
Daniels' 69% completion rate set an all-time qualified rookie record. It wasn't as if the 24-year-old QB was dinking-and-dunking his way to 3,568 pass yards and 25 pass TDs. He throws pretty bombs to Terry McLaurin and can do damage with his legs, setting the all-time rookie QB rushing record (891 yards) with six rushing scores.
Late in the season and into the playoffs, Daniels has seemingly been the entire Commanders rushing attack -- a Commanders RB has not had 70-plus rushing yards in a game since their Week 14 bye. Of the Commanders' 661 rushing yards since Week 15, 395 have been gained by quarterbacks (most in the ߣÏÈÉúAV).
Despite all that he's shouldered, the rookie hasn't blinked.
On Saturday, he could become the first rookie QB to win multiple playoff games despite his team not ranking in the top three in scoring defense in the regular season (Washington ranked 18th in PPG allowed). The only other QBs to win two-plus playoff games each had dominant defenses: Mark Sanchez (2009 New York Jets ranked first in PPG allowed), Joe Flacco (2008 Baltimore Ravens ranked third), Brock Purdy (2022 San Francisco 49ers ranked first).
Heading to a raucous Ford Field, don't expect the unflappable rookie to be shaken. Daniels generated a 108.5 passer rating in nine road games in 2024, including playoffs (6-3 QB W-L), the best by a rookie in ߣÏÈÉúAV history (previous best was Robert Griffin III: 106.1 in 2012).
Glenn's defense has played sturdy despite the well-chronicled injuries. How he handles Daniels will be key. The defensive coordinator loves playing physical man coverage while bringing pressure. The QB, however, has eaten up blitzes. Daniels generated a 114.7 passer rating versus the blitz in 2024 (12 passing TDs, one INT). In the Wild Card Round, the rookie went 9 of 16 for 140 passing yards, zero TDs, zero INTs versus the blitz.
When Detroit blitzes and plays man coverage, Daniels' legs could also come into play. The Lions allowed 454 rushing yards to QBs in 2024 (fourth most in the ߣÏÈÉúAV).
Don't expect Glenn to change his colors or what's been successful for Detroit this season, but facing a playmaker like Daniels could come with some tweaks.
2) Lions run game versus vulnerable Commanders run D. The Lions set a franchise record for points this season with 564, fourth in ߣÏÈÉúAV history. They did so with an explosive passing attack behind one of the best offensive lines in the league, a quarterback in Jared Goff who has been lights out, two dynamic receivers in Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, a stud tight end in Sam LaPorta, and a cast of do-anything characters.
Saturday, however, offensive coordinator Ben Johnson's crew has a distinct advantage on the ground.
Detroit averaged 146.4 rushing yards per game, sixth in the ߣÏÈÉúAV, and 4.7 yards per carry, ninth best. The Commanders allowed the third-most rushing YPG in the ߣÏÈÉúAV in 2024 (137.5). On paper, it's the most lopsided advantage in the game.
Detroit getting link-placeholder-0 back for Saturday's tussle makes the ߣÏÈÉúAV's top backfield whole. Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs (2023-24) are the second running back duo with 1,000-plus scrimmage yards and 10-plus TDs in the same season multiple times (HOFer Jim Brown and HOFer Bobby Mitchell for the Browns in 1959-60 were the other).
The Sonic and Knuckles duo is a dual-threat menace that doesn't tip the play. Both can do damage between the tackles or to the edge. Each can catch the pigskin and pick up a blitzer when needed.
With Montgomery missing the final three games of the regular season due to an MCL injury, Gibbs showed he can be a workhorse. The Lions rushed for 145-plus yards in each game sans Montgomery.
Gibbs led Detroit with 1,929 scrimmage yards, third in the ߣÏÈÉúAV behind Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry. Gibbs' 6.4 yards-per-touch average was tops in the ߣÏÈÉúAV among players with 150-plus touches, and he was the only player to average 70-plus rushing YPG and 30-plus receiving YPG in 2024.
With an offensive line that can mash holes and the speed to burn in the open field, Gibbs became the first player in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016) to average 2.5 yards per carry before contact and after contact in the same season (minimum 200 carries).
With Montgomery coming off a knee injury, expect Gibbs to handle the bulk of the workload still. But getting Knuckles back will make Detroit potent in short yardage, goal line and fourth downs.
3) The battle of the fourth-down onions. Our fourth down kings: Dan Campbell and Dan Quinn.
The Lions (22) and Commanders (20) were the only two teams with a winning record that had 20-plus fourth-down conversions in 2024 (others: Browns, Bears, Falcons)
Detroit had 33 fourth-down attempts in 2024, fourth in the ߣÏÈÉúAV behind the Browns, Bears and Giants. The Lions converted 23 of those, including six for touchdowns.
Washington had 23 attempts but converted those at the highest rate in the ߣÏÈÉúAV (87%). Quinn wasn't shy about going for it in key spots in the Wild Card Round. Washington had five fourth-down attempts against Tampa Bay, converting three. The Commanders became the first team in the play-by-play era (since 1991) to win a playoff game with five-plus fourth-down attempts, per ߣÏÈÉúAV Research.
Despite bloviating consternation nationally about his aggressive tactics, Campbell has never shied away. He'll live or die by those gutsy decisions. His team has benefited, with big scores in big spots instead of settling for field goals. At times, his bellicose style forces opponents to match him -- or at least feel like they need to (see: Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell in Week 18). Getting an opponent off its game mentally in such situations is one way Campbell and Co. steamrolled through the regular season. A high-powered offense willing to use all four downs to find paydirt is a dangerous proposition.
Campbell's tactics are unlikely to threaten Quinn, who showed last week that he's just as fearless. The Commanders head to Detroit as a significant underdog. A dog with nothing to lose and talent like Daniels and McLaurin can be dangerous. I'd expect Quinn to go for it in a big spot or two early. He knows he can't settle for field goals and beat the Lions on the road.