Immediate draft grades provide a foundation for future evaluations. Waiting three years to assess draft classes without accounting for how the decision was viewed at the time usually leads to revisionist history
These 2024 ߣÏÈÉúAV Draft quick-snap grades reflect the value I think each pick (or set of picks) has, given the slot and the prospect's college film/athleticism scores. Trades, and the capital exchanged (both picks and players), are factored into these grades, too, as they also play a significant part in determining the future of a franchise.
Draft picks
- Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (No. 4 overall)
- Missouri DT Darius Robinson (No. 27)
Analysis: With the first-round pick gained in last year’s draft-day trade with the Texans, Arizona grabbed Harrison. The son of Pro Football Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison has the potential to be a Randy Moss-type downfield threat at the next level. The Cardinals need exactly that sort of playmaker. He can box out smaller corners on in-cutting routes and use his outstanding body control on the sideline to pick up crucial third downs. Kyler Murray should appreciate having Harrison in place for a pivotal season. Finding a powerful inside/outside pass rusher in Robinson late in Round 1 matched value and a high-priority need for the Cardinals.
Draft pick
- Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. (No. 8 overall)
Analysis: Penix suffered season-ending injuries in each of his four years at Indiana, but the pocket presence, strong arm and accuracy he showed at Washington clearly captured the Falcons’ imagination. Without the injury history, he might have been the second or third quarterback off the board, so it made sense to see Penix picked among the second tier of passers. It is confusing, though, that it was the Falcons who took Penix after giving Kirk Cousins a massive contract this offseason -- despite the veteran QB coming off injury. Add in the inherent risk that Penix's extensive health woes provide, and I think it's one of the riskier draft picks in recent memory.
Draft pick
- Clemson DB Nate Wiggins (No. 30 overall)
Analysis: Wiggins' recovery speed stood out on tape and was confirmed with a 4.28-second 40-yard dash at the ߣÏÈÉúAV Scouting Combine. He's not a physical tackler, but is competitive at the catch point. Wiggins weighed just 173 pounds (measuring 6-foot-1 3/8 inch) at the combine, which is reminiscent of last year's lean first-round corner for Washington, Emmanuel Forbes, who struggled as a rookie. The Ravens passed on Kool-Aid McKinstry to pick Wiggins and did not address the offensive tackle position despite Ronnie Stanley's injury history and the trade of Morgan Moses.
Draft pick
- None
Analysis: The Bills traded down twice on Thursday night. They swapped a fourth-rounder for a third-rounder and moved up in Round 7 -- allowing the Chiefs to pick receiver Xavier Worthy -- and then traded the Panthers a seventh in exchange for a sixth to drop from the final pick of the first round to the first pick of the second. I understand the strategy, given the draft's depth at receiver and lack of elite edge rushers, but Buffalo might regret passing on Worthy if he helps Kansas City continue its reign.
Draft pick
- South Carolina WR Xavier Legette (No. 32 overall)
Analysis: The Panthers were looking to land their franchise quarterback by trading up to the No. 1 spot last year. Unfortunately, their poor 2023 season led to the Bears getting the No. 1 overall pick in that deal. I give former GM Scott Fitterer and Panthers owner David Tepper credit for being aggressive in looking to make a splash. In hindsight, many will say they picked the wrong guy first overall, with C.J. Stroud coming off the board at No. 2, but it’s too early to tell and we don’t know how the two quarterbacks would have performed had they switched places. Carolina moved up one spot on Thursday, giving up very little value in swapping Day 3 picks for a chance to select Legette. His size/speed combination is impressive, but he was a one-year full-time starter for South Carolina and there will be comparisons with other pass catchers who were available, including Adonai Mitchell and Ladd McConkey, as all of their careers unfold.
Draft picks
- USC QB Caleb Williams (No. 1 overall)
- Washington WR Rome Odunze (No. 9)
Analysis: It’s been clear since he won the 2022 Heisman Trophy that Williams would be the top pick of this draft. His ability to make great out-of-structure plays, deliver deep bombs and throw with touch between levels -- not to mention, his mobility outside and within the pocket -- made him the draft’s top quarterback prospect. He'll love throwing to DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and the ninth overall pick in Odunze, whose all-around game outside allows him to create plays on quick throws and beat corners deep to stretch the field. It's a new offensive era in Chicago.
Draft pick
- Georgia OT Amarius Mims (No. 18 overall)
Analysis: Mims is a large human (6-7 3/4, 340 pounds) -- one of the few players able to match the size of Cincinnati starting left tackle Orlando Brown (6-8, 345) and free-agent acquisition Trent Brown (6-8, 355). There's no question about Mims' power and ability to make running around his pass pro extremely difficult, which is important to protect quarterback Joe Burrow. He is a people-mover in the run game, as well. I will be interested to see if he has the recovery speed to handle secondary rushes. The young lineman carries some question marks coming off an ankle injury last season and playing a total of just 775 snaps in three seasons with the Bulldogs (per Pro Football Focus).
Draft pick
- None
Analysis: Cleveland sat out another first round due to the Deshaun Watson trade. The deal will continue to be questioned if Watson can’t regain the form he showed prior to sitting out the 2021 season and serving an 11-game suspension in 2022. He showed some signs of turning things around early last season before an injury sidelined him for the rest of the year, but Watson needs to stay on the field long enough to lift the team to new heights.
Draft pick
- Oklahoma OT Tyler Guyton (No. 29 overall)
Analysis: The Cowboys added a third-round pick from Detroit to move down five draft slots. Guyton’s large frame (6-7 3/4, 322) and length (34 1/8-inch arm) make him an excellent fit with Dallas. While he protected left-handed quarterback Dillon Gabriel’s blind side at right tackle for most of the past two seasons at Oklahoma, he played some left tackle and possesses the agility to take over for departed longtime starter Tyron Smith. It's hard to imagine a better scenario for Dallas.
Draft pick
- Oregon QB Bo Nix (No. 12 overall)
Analysis: I figured Nix would be in the mix in the top dozen picks because of his experience (61 collegiate starts), toughness and mobility. Denver badly needed a new quarterback after the departure of Russell Wilson, and Nix was the top remaining passer in the top two tiers at the position. He does not have the arm talent of the quarterbacks picked ahead of him, and he lacks elite quickness as a runner. He also struggled with his consistency early in his career at Auburn, but he bounced back in a new environment at Oregon. Head coach Sean Payton and quarterbacks coach Davis Webb probably liked the young man's combination of efficient play and competitive spirit, but it will be interesting to see if he has the game to warrant the 12th overall selection.
Draft pick
- Alabama DB Terrion Arnold (No. 24 overall)
Analysis: The release of Cameron Sutton kept the cornerback position high on the team's need list. Therefore, it was no surprise the Lions made a trade with the Cowboys to move up for Arnold, one of the best defenders in college football last season. He blanketed pass catchers inside and outside for the Tide while also offering physicality in run support. Considered a potential top-12 pick for much of the pre-draft process, he presented good value at No. 24, but we'll see if trading a third-rounder to Dallas instead of waiting for Arnold's former teammate, Kool-Aid McKinstry, or Nate Wiggins later in the round would have made more sense.
Draft pick
- Arizona OT Jordan Morgan (No. 25 overall)
Analysis: There was little doubt the Packers were looking at offensive tackles early in the draft following the release of David Bakhtiari. Morgan's size and game are very similar to the former Pro Bowler’s, so the pick is not a major surprise. He's a solid, smooth pass protector who doesn't get beat with speed very often, but he can struggle against power rushers and isn't a dominant run blocker. There were other tackles available, too, in Roger Rosengarten and Tyler Guyton, as well as defensive back Cooper DeJean and defensive tackle Jer'Zhan Newton. Time will tell if those players would have been better selections.
Draft pick
- None
Analysis: In March, the Texans traded out of the first round, sending Minnesota the 23rd overall pick, dropping down to No. 42 and receiving a 2025 second-rounder as part of the deal. The value difference between the 23rd and 42nd pick is not huge, so kudos to them for acquiring future draft capital. They sent their 2024 first-round selection to Arizona to pick Will Anderson Jr. last year. Anderson won the Defensive Rookie of the Year award and looks to be a future star, but it will be interesting to track the success of the three premium picks used to select him (12th and 33rd overall last year, plus this year’s first-rounder).
Draft pick
- UCLA DE Laiatu Latu (No. 15 overall)
Analysis: Latu's an inspirational story. A neck injury forced him to retire from football at Washington, but he came back with a vengeance the past two years at UCLA after being cleared to play. He combines the power to take tackles into the backfield, the strong hands to disengage for secondary rushes if quarterbacks step up to avoid him and the closing speed to chase down ball-carriers. However, the potential risk based on his injury history is reflected in the grade.
Draft pick
- LSU WR Brian Thomas Jr. (No. 23 overall)
Analysis: The Jaguars smartly traded down six spots in the first round to gain a middle-round pick this year and two in 2025. They may have selected Thomas at No. 17 if they stayed. Along with using his speed and length to separate downfield, he can also adjust to underthrown balls. Calvin Ridley departed in free agency, Christian Kirk is coming off an injury and Zay Jones is a 2025 free agent, so Trevor Lawrence should be thrilled with this pick.
Draft pick
- Texas WR Xavier Worthy (No. 28 overall)
Analysis: Everyone expected Worthy to run fast at the combine because of his track background and explosiveness after the catch. I believe the record-setting 4.21-second 40 locked his place in the first round. His ability to track the ball and turn short passes into long gains made me predict the Chiefs' upward movement for their perfect pick. Worthy is certainly lean (5-11 1/4, 165 pounds), but he’s not significantly smaller than Eagles receiver DeVonta Smith (6-0, 170). Worthy brings the potential to produce chunk plays, which was a need for the defending champions.
Draft pick
- Georgia TE Brock Bowers (No. 13 overall)
Analysis: With six quarterbacks off the board before the Raiders picked, they couldn't pass up Bowers, even after grabbing Michael Mayer in the second round last year. The former Bulldog’s potential value falls between George Kittle and Travis Kelce on the tight end scale. Agile and powerful after the catch, Bowers can line up at multiple spots for his new team while providing enough blocking to give running backs a chance to reach the sideline or find a seam. An ankle injury limited him in 2023, but he'll be an instant-impact performer for whoever plays quarterback for the Raiders in 2024.
Draft pick
- Notre Dame OT Joe Alt (No. 5 overall)
Analysis: Alt cuts the figure of a prototypical left tackle at 6-foot-8 5/8 and 321 pounds, with 34 1/4-inch arms and excellent agility (registering a 7.31-second three-cone at the combine). He's looked like a first-rounder the past two years, not only shutting down edge rushers with pure size but attacking defenders in the run game, dropping his hips to get leverage and pulling to create running lanes. He'll be a longtime starter for a Chargers team seeking physicality up front -- but did they miss out on the chance to add an impact receiver by passing on Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze? This draft's depth at the position may have influenced their decision to not replace departed veteran receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams on Thursday.
Draft pick
- Florida State DE Jared Verse (No. 19 overall)
Analysis: The Rams found great value with their first first-round pick in eight years, grabbing a much-needed edge rusher in Verse who could have gone in the top dozen selections. He might not be as dynamic or bendy off the edge as some of the other pass rushers in this class, and he did see a drop in production from 2022 (17.5 tackles for loss with nine sacks) to 2023 (12 tackles for loss with nine sacks), but the transfer from Albany to Florida State looked plenty agile last season and has the power and relentlessness to accumulate sacks on primary and secondary moves. His strength in the run game should not be overlooked, either.
Draft pick
- Penn State LB Chop Robinson (No. 21 overall)
Analysis: Robinson has the speed and flexibility to be a top-notch designated pass rusher as a rookie and much more in the future. His relative lack of production in college (11.5 sacks in three years) belied his ability to win against tackles and disrupt plays. The Dolphins needed to add more edge rushers, even after signing Shaq Barrett in free agency, as both Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb are working their way back from season-ending injuries.
Draft picks
- Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy (No. 10 overall)
- Alabama LB Dallas Turner (No. 17)
Analysis: The Vikings moved up one spot to grab McCarthy, presumably to box out Denver and Las Vegas. He did not throw 40 times per game in Michigan's run-heavy offense, but he has plenty of arm, excellent mobility and accuracy throwing to either side of the field. He can surprise with his open-field speed, and his ability to win games at the high school and collegiate levels carries weight with ߣÏÈÉúAV teams. While not a physical specimen, he is similarly built to C.J. Stroud and other quarterbacks recently drafted with top-10 picks. The Vikings made a pre-draft trade with the Texans to get a second first-round selection (23rd overall) and then moved up from that spot to nab Turner. His 4.46 40 turned heads at the combine, but he still fell, thanks to the rush for quarterbacks and likely also because of his average size for the position (6-2 3/4-inch, 247 pounds). He uses that low center of gravity and 34 3/8-inch arms to separate from blockers playing the run and long-arm them into the quarterback when in pass-rush mode. He's a very good value at 17, even though today's trade ate away at the team's mid-round capital, both this year and next. This draft is lean at edge rusher, and the Vikings decided to go for it.
Draft pick
- North Carolina QB Drake Maye (No. 3 overall)
Analysis: Maye possesses the physical characteristics to be an outstanding ߣÏÈÉúAV quarterback. He stretches the field vertically, creates room for himself to throw within the pocket, runs with toughness and can place the ball to the sideline and between defenders when in form. But his consistency is an issue. He must make sure his mind, feet and arm are working in tandem on every throw. The Patriots will need to add more talent around him to ensure his success.
Draft pick
- Oregon State OT Taliese Fuaga (No. 14 overall)
Analysis: With former first-round pick Trevor Penning struggling to live up to his draft billing, Ryan Ramczyk's career in serious doubt due to and the recent retirement of lineman James Hurst, the Saints had to address offensive tackle in Round 1. Fuaga’s power off the ball, nasty attitude and ability to move to the second level at right tackle made him a favorite among ߣÏÈÉúAV personnel evaluators. He has average arm length (33 1/8 inches) and athleticism, but he's a tone-setter who has a chance to become a long-term starter in the league.
Draft pick
- LSU WR Malik Nabers (No. 6 overall)
Analysis: Nabers’ quickness off the line, tight routes, strong hands and electric moves after the catch remind me of another former LSU wideout the Giants selected in the first round (10 years ago, in fact). If Nabers proves agile enough to win against ߣÏÈÉúAV cornerbacks at the top of the route, he could become one of the league's best receivers in time. The question down the line, though, might be whether the Giants would’ve been better off selecting J.J. McCarthy at No. 6 and then a very good receiver on Day 2 instead.
Draft pick
- Penn State OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu (No. 11 overall)
Analysis: Even after signing oft-injured Tyron Smith and trading for Morgan Moses (both are 33 years old) this offseason, the team decided to pick Fashanu. His build, intelligence and smooth movements on the edge are intriguing, to be sure, and he should have some time to develop behind the veterans. But his game is raw, and the Jets could have gone with tackle Taliese Fuaga or tight end Brock Bowers -- both of whom are ready to play now.
Draft pick
- Toledo DB Quinyon Mitchell (No. 22 overall)
Analysis: For once, GM Howie Roseman did not need to make a move upwards to find a great value at a position of need. Mitchell's ability to run a 4.33 40 at the combine at 6-foot and 195 pounds locked his spot in the first round. His six interceptions and 46 pass breakups during his time at Toledo showed his closing speed and ability to play the ball, as did his work against top receivers at the Senior Bowl. Mitchell often played off in college, but he has the strength and quickness to play man and showed the acumen to come off the edge as a blitzer. What a find for the Eagles, who bring more talent to the cornerback position.
Draft pick
- Washington OT Troy Fautanu (No. 20 overall)
Analysis: Fautanu measures just 6-foot-3 3/4, 317 pounds, but he was a very effective pass protector for Washington with his 34 1/2-inch arms, natural bend and quickness. He might move inside because of his toughness and mobility in the run game, but being announced as a tackle Thursday night means he could stick outside to compete with Dan Moore. Fautanu's stock may have dropped a bit due to a reported knee issue, but the Steelers smartly found value in the stud lineman, who joins last year's first-rounder, Broderick Jones, up front to protect new quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Justin Fields.
Draft pick
- Florida WR Ricky Pearsall (No. 31 overall)
Analysis: The uncertainty around Brandon Aiyuk likely led to the selection of Pearsall, whose silky smooth routes and solid hands were evident with the Gators and at the Senior Bowl. Florida's very average passing attack didn’t help his cause (though he had an vs. Charlotte), but he has the game to be a solid ߣÏÈÉúAV starter.
Draft pick
- Texas DT Byron Murphy II (No. 16 overall)
Analysis: One of the least surprising picks in the first round was Murphy to the Seahawks. His skills as a run-stuffer and interior pressure machine were worthy of a pick in the top half of the first round and something Seattle needed in its front four. His smallish frame (6-0 1/2, 297 pounds) belies how well he plays under the pads of offensive linemen, and his quick first step makes him tough to handle one-on-one, especially on reach blocks. Similarly-sized tackles like Ed Oliver and Calijah Kancey show that you don't have to be huge to be a top-notch D-lineman.
Draft pick
- Duke C Graham Barton (No. 26 overall)
Analysis: Barton missed the end of Duke's season due to injury but was still a first-round pick thanks to a strong pro day and fine game film. He started at left tackle for three of his four seasons with the Blue Devils, displaying great pass-protection skills by using natural bend and agility on the edge and a stout anchor. However, Barton projects to play guard or center (where he started as a freshman) for the Bucs due to his intelligence, tenacious blocking and average length (32 7/8-inch arm).Tampa Bay needed to find another interior lineman, so this pick makes a lot of sense.
Draft pick
- Alabama OT JC Latham (No. 7 overall)
Analysis: One would think the 6-foot-6, 342-pound Latham would lumber on the edge or struggle in pass protection, but he's quick enough in the run game to hit linebackers and is a wall in front of his quarterback, showing the lateral quickness to cover ground and flexibility to widen for an anchor. With Joe Alt off the board when Tennessee came on the clock, this pick made the most sense for a team desperately in need of a real dude to join last year's first-rounder, Peter Skoronski, on the offensive line. Latham may get a shot at left tackle, too, a position he said he can play despite not lining up there at Alabama.
Draft pick
- LSU QB Jayden Daniels (No. 2 overall)
Analysis: The ascension of Daniels during his senior season led to this moment. The inconsistency shown through his career at Arizona State and LSU disappeared, especially in the second half of the season, when his decisiveness in the pocket allowed throws to hit their targets and his elusiveness and speed as a runner caused defenses major headaches. The hope is Daniels continues to add weight to his frame as he matures, which would make him even stronger in the pocket to use his arm to distribute the ball to Commanders receivers Jahan Dotson and Terry McLaurin.